Nous avons toujours dit que lorsque l’on vous parle de risque, il faut traduire « jeu » et « perte ».
L’appétit pour le risque n’est rien d’autre que l’appétit pour le jeu et le jeu, quand la marée des liquidités reflue , devient perdant. Nous vous rappelons aussi que la liquidité ne dépend pas que de la politique des banques centrales, non, elle dépend des marchés, des animal spirits.
Nous avons encore ces derniers jours attiré votre attention sur la cassure intervenue vers la mi avril sur les marché, cassure qui pointe le fait que l’appétit pour le jeu/risque se réduit. Il y a de nombreuses divergences un peu partout. C’est un signe et un signal.

Les emprunts distressed sont un segment de marché très risqué. ils sont en déroute .

« The worst commodities slump in 13 years is wreaking havoc for investors seeking to profit from companies in distress.

Distressed bonds have lost 8.2 percent this month as oil and coal prices slid, bringing this year’s loss to 12.2 percent, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index that tracks the debt.

The securities are on pace to lose more than 20 percent for the second straight year, the worst performance since 2008.

More than $7 billion of the distressed-debt market has been wiped out this month amid a renewal of a slide in commodities. The performance is a disappointment to investors who purchased about $40 billion of junk-rated bonds from energy companies this year, thinking that the worst of the slump was over. The extended losses in July are likely to add to a 1.4 percent loss in June for hedge funds that invest in distressed securities, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc.

Defaults Climb

Speculative-grade borrowers are increasingly unable to pay their bills, with their default rate expected to rise to 3.1 percent next March from 2.02 percent last month, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

A list of the riskiest borrowers tracked by Moody’s has swelled to 206 in June, the highest in nearly four years.

Issuance of the riskiest junk bonds, those rated lower than Caa1 by Moody’s or less than CCC+ by Standard & Poor’s, has dwindled to $24.9 billion this year from $60.6 billion in all of 2014, Bloomberg data show.

“You really have to do your homework, and bet on good names,” said Manases Zarco, a portfolio manager who helps manage high-yield and distressed debt at Newfleet Asset Management, which oversees $12.4 billion. “Or you will feel the pain, especially as we face the prospect of rising rates.”