Document à lire, commentaires après la non-hausse des taux

The Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged on Thursday after weeks of market-churning debate at the central bank about whether it was time to end an era of near-zero rates. Officials noted concerns about recent turbulence in financial markets and in economies abroad. Here’s what some economists are saying:

“The Federal Reserve’s third mandate appears to be global financial stability. The U.S. central bank has backed away from its first rate rise in over nine years, saying that international economic and financial weakness could dampen activity in the U.S….The reluctance of Fed officials to hike now can be linked to market conditions and their eagerness to avoid a premature move that risks stifling growth.” –Mark Haefele, UBS

Strong data on job creation in the U.S. continue to suggest strongly that the current stance of Fed policy is too loose, but global considerations apparently are weighing on the Committee. Indeed, the question is less ‘When will the Fed initiate normalization?’ and more ‘Will the Fed tighten this year?’ We do not believe that Fed officials are worried at this point about being behind the curve on inflation. But issues of financial stability probably still are a concern, with the prospect of future asset bubbles rising the longer policy remains geared toward ‘emergency’ conditions.” –Dana Saporta, Credit Suisse

This is now the most cautious, overly risk management oriented Federal Reserve in history. They aren’t done yet.  They just won’t stop easing.  The Greenspan and even the Bernanke Feds wouldn’t stop fighting inflation, and the Yellen Fed won’t stop fighting unemployment.  The domestic labor market isn’t good enough for them yet either….Fed policy is held hostage by events outside our borders.” –Chris Rupkey, Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi

“There is no change in rates in this statement, we see a cautious tone, suggesting–contrary to expectations—that a rate hike by the end of the year is no sure thing. The FOMC notes that global economic and financial developments may restrain growth here and put downward pressure on inflation.” –Scott Brown, Raymond James

“Not only did the Fed leave rates unchanged, but the statement did not have a whiff of a Hawkish tone. The Fed appears to be increasingly concerned on the inflation front with still-sluggishly low prices, and declining expectations as measured by market-based indices.  In other words, the Fed was willing to raise rates sooner than later if Committee members were confident that inflation was at least heading back towards the long-run target of 2%.  The data, however, suggests the exact opposite: inflation may continue to retreat further from the Fed’s preferred level of 2% for some time.” –Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Economics

“The rise in the euro against the dollar in response to the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates on hold highlights our view that quantitative easing in the eurozone cannot guarantee a weak euro. If the Fed were to become  more dovish in response to emerging market concerns, the shield that the weak euro has provided the eurozone economy and its exporters could crumble and force the European Central Bank to either increase monthly bond purchases or signal an extension of the QE program beyond the initial planned end date of September 2016. Nonetheless, it still only seems a matter of time before the Fed starts to raise interest rates and the diverging monetary policy stance between the Fed and the ECB should prompt future renewed falls in the euro.” –Ben May, Oxford Economics

“The mention of ‘monitoring developments abroad’ hints at a concern with global conditions such as the Chinese stock market selloff played a significant part in the central bank holding rates….The U.S. dollar is losing ground across the board as the timing of the rate hike is being pushed back. The dollar was boosted by potential interest rate divergence and the more the Fed delays the first rate hike, the market will punish the dollar.” —Alfonso Esparza, Oanda

“While the labor market has made sufficient progress to raise the federal funds rate from rock bottom, inflation is still running below target, convincing the Fed that it can afford to wait a little longer without fear that the economy is close to overheating….The delay will come as a relief at a time when concerns about the health of the global economy are mounting, particularly given the recent softening in China and the recessions in Brazil and Russia….Instead the Fed will wait, until December at the earliest, and the path of monetary tightening will be slow and measured.” –Joseph Lake, Economist Intelligence Unit

“The Federal Reserve has said that it is data-dependent, and while there is positive data out there, it’s clear more time is needed to evaluate incoming data in order to ensure sufficient progress….All eyes will now turn to the Dec. 15-16 meeting of the FOMC. Conventional wisdom continues to hold that short-term rates will increase by year’s end, with the December meeting being the most likely option. The other possibility would be the Oct. 27-28 meeting, but that seems less likely.” –Chad Moutray, chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers

“U.S. growth is acknowledged to be tied to global events…. Looking forward, the China story is not likely to get better before it gets worse. As this slo-mo implosion reverberates through the global economy, the last the thing the Fed wants to be doing is being the only central bank raising rates and therefore boosting the dollar.” –Steve Blitz, ITG Investment Research, Inc.

“The uptick in 2015 growth is offset by a downward revision to 2016 and the jobless rate projections were also lowered. This will be interpreted by the Street as signaling that the Committee now believes the noninflationary jobless rate continues to drift lower. Perhaps this is the beginning of the Fed taking on board the idea that excess global capacity is playing a bigger role in determining domestic wages and prices than the trade number themselves imply.” –Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities

“All the will-they-won’t-they speculation aside, there was no urgency for the Fed to act today. Metrics from wages to capacity utilization show a US economy that is far from overheating. Given this lack of urgency, the Committee’s decision to keep its powder dry for another day is logical and prudent. Noting in its communique the disruptive potential of recent global developments, the Fed gave itself plenty of room to reassess conditions between now and December with an eye towards a plausible lift-off then.” –Katrina Lamb, MV Financial

“While the Fed is focused on the health of the U.S. economy, as it should be, weaknesses outside the U.S. appear to be driving caution with regards to a monetary policy move. Recent inflation numbers offered no sign of urgency to ratchet down aggregate demand through higher interest rates. The balancing act of the Fed, whether to raise rates or not, continues.” –Perc Pineda, Credit Union National Association

Pictet  the Fed held fire in September, but a December hike remains likely  « We continue to forecast the first hike will come in December 2015, followed by a very slow pace of retightening next year »

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