La déconfiture de Glencore pèse sur les marchés. Tout le complexe du risk en est affecté, les spreads se dilatent, les prix des CDS montent.
Vous trouverez ci dessous un texte que nous considérons comme important. Il vient du FMI. Ce texte attire l’attention sur la montée du risque lié à l’endettement des firmes internationales de taille systémique.Il ne cherche pas à comprendre comment on en est arrivé là afin de ne pas froisser les USA, mais il décrit bien la situation.
En fait les taux zéro, le printing ont crée une recherche de rendement globalement. Cela a permis des émissions de dettes en dollars par des émetteurs de qualité douteuse ou bien par des émetteurs audacieux. Le montant des dettes émises par les pays émergents est passé de 4 trillions en 2004 à 18 trillions l’an dernier. C’est donc une masse considérable.
Les USA tentent de normaliser leur politique monétaire donc il est logique que les marchés anticipent une hausse du dollar, une liquidité en dollars moins forte et un recul du Reflation Trade, c’est à dire une chute des prix des commodities et de l’énergie. C’est ce qui se produit depuis quelques mois. Et c’est la conséquence-retour  de la cause initiale à savoir: la politique monétaire non conventionnelle américaine qui a consisté à trasher le dollar.
Ce qui a été fait dans un sens, le mouvement de flux financier vers les émergents, doit être fait dans l’autre sens , le reflux des capitaux vers le le Centre Américain. C’est précisément à cause de ce phénomène que la Fed a retardé en 2013 son Taper, elle a craint que la dislocation des assets à risques du printemps 2013 se transmette aux actifs américains, même non risqués comme les Treasuries.

Les firmes internationales et les émergents ont, ou auraient du avoir le temps de se préparer, mais la chute brutale des prix du pétrole et des commodities a pris beaucoup de gens par surprise.
La normalisation , ou plutôt sa tentative, doivent accentuer les mouvements en cours. Le risque doit monter alors qu’il n’est pas à son prix. Les leverages excessifs doivent être résorbés, les banques doivent se replier en bon ordre, tout ce ceci est amplificateur du cycle en cours. Il y donc un risque que, même si les firmes prennent les bonnes décisions, ces décisions ajoutent aux difficultés et surtout aux tendances déflationnistes et récessionnistes.
Vous noterez le biais du FMI, pour résoudre les problèmes il n’est pas question d’en supprimer les causes, à savoir les politiques monétaires laxistes et abusives, non, il faut multiplier les contrôles et les réglementations.
« Emerging markets should brace for a rise in corporate failures as a debt-bloated firms struggle with souring growth and climbing borrowing costs, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday in a new report.

From sugar firms in Brazil to pipe makers in Russia, firms in developing countries bulked up on cheap debt as central banks gassed the easy-money pedal in the wake of the financial crisis.

Then, emerging markets were the drivers of global growth. Developing-country firms quadrupled their borrowing from around $4 trillion in 2004 to well over $18 trillion last year, with China accounting for a major share.

Now, prospects in industrializing economies are weakening fast even as the U.S. Federal Reserve is getting set to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, a move that will raise borrowing costs around the world.

The burden of 26% larger average corporate debt ratios and higher interest rates come as commodity prices plummet, a staple export for many emerging-market economies. Compounding problems, many firms borrowed heavily in dollars. As the greenback surges against the value of local currency revenues, it makes repaying those loans increasingly difficult.

That massive debt build-up means it is “vital” for authorities to be increasingly vigilant, especially to threats to systemically important companies and the firms they have links to, including banks and other financial firms, the IMF said.

“Monitoring vulnerable and systemically important firms, as well as banks and other sectors closely linked to them, is crucial,” said Gaston Gelos, head of the fund’s global financial stability division.
Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector “and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending,” the IMF said.
And emerging markets should also be prepared for the eventuality of corporate failures, it warned: “Where needed, insolvency regimes should be reformed to enable rapid resolution of both failed and salvageable firms.”
The issue, presented in a report prepared ahead of the IMF’s annual meetings next week in Lima, Peru, will likely take center stage at the gathering of the world’s finance ministers and central bankers.

The Institute of International Finance on Tuesday estimated global investors have sold roughly $40 billion worth of emerging-market assets in the third quarter of the year, which would make it the worst quarter of net-capital outflows since late 2008. The IIF represents around 500 of the world’s largest banks, hedge funds and other financial firms.
Besides the petroleum sector, where borrowing didn’t anticipate the nosedive in prices, the construction industry is particularly exposed to the changing business climate, the IMF said.
Worried about the building risks, investors have been selling out of many emerging markets, pushing down equity and exchange-rate prices, and pushing up borrowing costs. That market turmoil is exacerbating their economic woes.
In Latin America’s six largest economies, for example, the average growth rate has fallen from 6% in 2010 to around 1% this year. Brazil’s central bank last week said the country’s recession is far worse than expected.
China’s recent market turmoil and faster-than-expected economic slowdown is in large part fed by worries over the massive rise in China’s borrowing and whether the economy is vulnerable to a host of credit-driven bubbles in real estate, construction and other sectors.
Rapid credit growth has been a harbinger of previous emerging market crises. While economists say many countries have learned from the past by building up currency reserves and allowing flexible exchange rates to buffer against downturns, the mounting risks for many emerging markets are fueling worries across the globe.
Further complicating emerging market problems, the changing structure of financial markets leaves many developing economies exposed to major outflows of capital as investors scramble to exit. That can lead to fire sales and a breakdown in markets.
“In extreme conditions, markets can freeze altogether, and affect the financial system more broadly, as seen during the global financial crisis,” Mr. Gelos said.
To help guard against building risks, the IMF said policy makers should introduce stronger financial regulations such as higher cash buffers for exchange-rate exposures and conduct stress tests to weed out problem firms. »
Related reading:
Central Banks’ Lesson: Easy Money Alone Isn’t a Growth Salve
Currency Swings Still Pack a Power Export Punch
Brazil’s Sugar Cane: An Emerging Debacle
Dollar’s Surge Pummels Companies in Emerging Markets