Comme à l’accoutumée les commentateurs coupent les cheveux en quatre après la publication des minutes du FOMC. Ils ne nous apprennent rien.

A partir du même texte, ils donnent des interprétations opposées On pourrait croire que ceci est voulu par la Fed, ce serait une erreur , nous ne sommes pas dans l’habileté, nous sommes dans la vraie incertitude. La Fed elle même ne sait pas , elle ne sait rien. Elle veut monter les taux, montrer qu’elle peut normaliser, mais Yellen est une anxieuse, elle a peur de se tromper. Voila la réalité et les informations économiques disponibles ne l’aident pas; elles sont erratiques.

Nous pensons que Yellen attend un signal fort: d’abord du coté chinois? puis du coté européen et enfin du coté des marchés de commodities.

Elle sait que la Chine prépare un plan de soutien fiscal et monétaire, elle sait que la BCE négocie en son sein une extension de son QE, elle voit une tentative de stabilisation du marché des commodities, mais elle ne peut déméler ce qui est le jeu des anticipations spéculatives sur sa propre décision et ce qui est le jeu des anticipations économiques plus fondées.

Nous constatons et cela suiffit à notre jugement:

-la Fed doute de la solidité de la reprise

-la Fed a peur de la contagion de la Chine et des émergents

-la Fed ne cesse de reculer devant le risque de normaliser,

– la Fed prend conscience des conséquences non voulues de sa politique

Elle a peur, elle n’est pas sure du bien fondée de sa décision. La Fed tremble à l’idée de commettre les erreurs qui ont été commises dans le milieu des années 30 ou « on a resserré trop vite ». Elle croit que c’est une question de calendrier, elle tombe dans le piège révisionniste de Friedman et autres qui attribuent la rechute de cette époque au resserrement prématuré.

En fait ce qui compte, ce n’est pas le calendrier, c’est la situation réelle, la situation organique, interne du Système. Et le système ne sera jamais mur, tant que l’on restera dans le cadre de cette politique! Ces gens n’ont pas compris que ce qui a fait sortir de la crise de 1929, ce n’est leur action ou celle des gouvernements, mais la guerre. La guerre a créée une demande nouvelle, détruit du capital ancien, permis la destruction des dettes et de la monnaie. Voila ce qui a remis le système sur ses rails, pas leur petite gestion de surface.

Les néo-cons le savent eux,, ils attendent la guerre.

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Voici les commentaires du NYT

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Worries that inflation would continue to lag because of weaker economic growth abroad, particularly in China, helped nudge members of the Federal Reserve to postpone dialing back on their stimulus campaign last month, according to the official summary of a meeting released by the central bank on Thursday.
Fed officials signaled throughout much of the summer that they were getting ready to raise interest rates in the fall, after keeping their benchmark interest rate close to zero since the end of 2008. But the effect of a slowdown on American exports and commodity prices, combined with fewer signs of inflation, stayed their hand at their two-day meeting in mid-September.
“Participants anticipated that recent global developments would likely put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term; compared with their previous forecasts, more now saw the risks to inflation as tilted to the downside,” the summary said.

The minutes from the September gathering of the bank’s policy-making group, the Federal Open Market Committee, offered a deeper look into the thinking behind a close-call decision.
Why the Fed Did Not Raise Rates
Officials are now debating whether the economy is strong enough to start raising rates. But when the Fed does move, borrowing costs and interest rates on savings are likely to start climbing.

“In part because of the risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation, the committee decided that it was prudent to wait for additional information,” the Fed said in the minutes.
Analysts saw few surprises in the newly released report, but several disagreed on what it revealed about the likelihood that the Fed would raise its main rate before the end of the year.
“They still think everything is on track,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, “but they want to make absolutely sure, given how poorly things are going overseas and how strong the dollar is.”

In a speech delivered a week after the committee meeting, the Fed chairwoman, Janet L. Yellen, maintained that the bank was still preparing to raise its benchmark rate later this year as long as the economy stayed on track.
That assessment was reflected in the minutes: “Most participants continued to anticipate that, based on their assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, the conditions for policy firming had been met or would likely be met by the end of the year.”
But after the Labor Department reported last week that job growth in September was a disappointing 142,000 and that the labor force participation rate had fallen amid further stagnation in average hourly wages, many analysts scaled back their expectations for a Fed liftoff from the so-called zero bound.
It turns out that reading the Fed minutes can be a “Rashomon”-like exercise with analysts drawing widely varying conclusions from the same material.
Carl R. Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust in Chicago, said he noticed that a growing number of Fed officials expressed doubts about the risks of inflation. “If they don’t have confidence they’ll achieve their objectives, they will not change policy,” Mr. Tannenbaum said. “The minutes make them sound like a group that isn’t very confident.”
But Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, also in Chicago, took away a different message from the summary. “The Fed is closer to liftoff than markets anticipate,” she said. “You get the sense that the meeting was more optimistic than their statement suggested.”
In her view, the expectation among the Fed’s staff that inflation might remain below the annual 2 percent pace the central bank considers healthy for spending and investment until 2018 does not mean the Fed will postpone its initial move much longer. But it does suggest, she said, that when the Fed does raise rates, it will go very slowly.
Ms. Yellen has repeatedly said that when the Fed does act, it will move slowly, raising rates about one percentage point a year. But some analysts say they now think the Fed will be even more cautious.
As the minutes made clear, Fed officials are paying attention to market expectations.
“The last thing they want to do is surprise anybody,” Mr. Zandi said. “If they’re going to go in December, they’ve got to get people ready for that.”
That signaling may have already begun.
In a speech in San Francisco on Tuesday, John C. Williams, president of the regional Federal Reserve Bank there and a voting member, said, “Things are looking up, and if they stay on track, I see this as the year we start the process of monetary policy normalization.”
Eric S. Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, also said in an interview this week that a rate increase before the end of the year was likely. But he noted that the disappointing jobs report further sensitized him to the economy’s fragility. “If we start getting a string of weak data,” he said, “then obviously we don’t need to be tightening if the economy is slowing down.” Growth of less than 2 percent or an increase in the unemployment rate could prompt him to endorse a delay, he said. (Mr. Rosengren is not currently a voting member, but he will be next year.)
Fed officials remained cautiously optimistic about the impact that China’s economic troubles, plunging oil prices and jittery stock markets could have on the American economy.
“Many participants judged that the effects of these developments on domestic economic activity were likely to be small,” the Fed summary of the discussion said, “but they acknowledged the risk that they might restrain U.S. economic growth somewhat.”
The minutes noted that participants were buoyed by the increases in consumer spending, improving housing activity and a strengthening labor markett . But as long as inflation remains exceptionally low and the labor market is weaker than the 5.1 percent official unemployment rate would normally indicate, policy makers may be reluctant to pull the trigger.
The committee next meets on Oct. 27 and 28, and then again on Dec. 15 and 16.
Binyamin Appelbaum contributed reporting.