Sans commentaire:  index de la Fed de Dallas sur l’activité manufacturière. Ne dites pas que cela n’a pas d’importance, la corrélation entre l’activité manufacturière et le reste de l’activité économique, avec un décalage, est très bonne.

January 2016 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Manufacturing conditions in the region contracted modestly this month, according to firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicator for general activity remained negative this month; however, it rebounded from a lower reading in December. Other indicators offered mixed signals: Shipments increased this month, but new orders and employment declined modestly. The survey’s price indexes suggest continued downward pressure on manufacturing prices. With respect to the manufacturers’ forecasts, nearly all the survey’s future indicators showed continued weakening this month while remaining positive.

Most Current Indicators Suggest Weak Activity

The diffusion index for current activity increased from a revised reading of -10.2 in December to -3.5 and has now been negative for five consecutive months (see Chart 1 above).* The index for current new orders remained negative but increased 10 points, to -1.4. Firms reported an increase in shipments to begin the new year: The shipments index increased 12 points, its first positive reading in four months. Firms reported continued declines in inventories: The inventories index remained negative and decreased 10 points. Firms’ backlog of unfilled orders also declined this month, and delivery times were shorter, according to the responding firms.

The survey’s labor market indicators suggest weaker employment. The employment index decreased 4 points, from 2.2 to -1.9. Nearly 69 percent of the firms reported no change in employment this month, and the percentage reporting decreases (16 percent) was slightly larger than the percentage reporting increases (14 percent).