Forte hausse de la probabilité de récession aux USA selon la Bofa
L’OCDE a revu en baisse ses prévisions pour l’économie mondiale, pas seulement cette fois du fait des pays émergents, et appelé à une « réponse collective » qui allie politique monétaire accommodante, réformes structurelles et recours à l’arme budgétaire là où c’est possible pour relancer la demande.
Dans ses prévisions économiques intérimaires, l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques s’inquiète en outre des risques « substantiels » d’instabilité financière au vu des turbulences qui se sont emparées des marchés et, dans ce contexte, de la grande vulnérabilité de certains pays émergents.
Pour les économistes de l’OCDE, le rythme de croissance de l’économie mondiale, déjà à son plus bas niveau depuis cinq ans, stagnera à 3,0% cette année et n’accélèrerait que légèrement l’an prochain (3,3%).
Ils ont revu ainsi en baisse de 0,3 point leurs précédentes prévisions pour 2016 comme pour 2017, après l’avoir déjà fait en novembre, et font preuve de plus de pessimisme que leurs homologues du FMI, qui escomptent encore 3,4% cette année puis 3,6% l’an prochain.
Moody’s: Record US spec-grade maturities will coincide with weak refinancing conditions
New York, February 16, 2016 — A record amount of US speculative-grade debt will mature over the next five years at a time when weak refinancing conditions will make it more difficult for lower-rated companies to access the capital markets, says Moody’s Investors Service.
Total speculative-grade corporate debt will hit a record-high $947 billion between 2016 and 2020 and peak at $400 billion in 2020.
A range of credit market, macroeconomic and regulatory factors as well as company-specific factors, will make it more difficult for speculative-grade issuers to refinance their debt, according to the report « Refunding Risk and Needs 2016-20: Speculative-Grade Corporations — US: Companies Face Record Maturities; New Issuance Wave Likely in 2017. »
The report notes that companies typically address refinancing needs in advance of the debt maturity date.
« We expect a significant wave of new issuance in late 2016 and 2017, as companies begin to address their upcoming maturities » said Tiina Siilaberg, a Moody’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. « However, a range of macroeconomic factors will make it more difficult for lower-rated companies to tap the debt capital markets in order to refinance their debt obligations. »
Furthermore, Moody’s three-year Refunding Index, which tracks whether there is enough liquidity in the credit markets to refinance upcoming debt securities, is currently below its historical average and stands at 2009 levels, indicating that the refinancing conditions are weaker than normal.
Moody’s notes that these factors include rising interest rates, wider spreads, slowing growth in China and volatility in oil prices. Stricter application of federal Leveraged Lending Guidelines capping debt levels will also make it more difficult for lower-rated companies to refinance.
In addition, while CLOs will continue to play a significant role funding corporate issuers, there are funding risks as well. Although CLO issuance should be adequate to cover corporate refinancing needs, rising defaults and the impact of the Dodd-Frank Act’s risk retention rule will make it more difficult for existing CLOs to supply corporate financing.
The telecommunications/technology/media sector continues to have the highest debt burden, but the sharp decline in oil prices has weakened the credit profiles of companies in the energy exploration & production, midstream, refining and marketing, and oilfield services and drilling sectors, and will likely increase the proportion of speculative-grade debt from these and the general commodity sectors.
« Baa3 rated companies in the energy related sectors have $34 billion in debt coming due over the next five years, » said Siilaberg. « But there is a high risk that investment-grade issuers in these sectors will be lowered to speculative-grade. »
This trend has been playing out in Moody’s Liquidity Stress Index, where the energy sector continues to fuel liquidity downgrades and defaults. « These companies are already grappling with cash flow constraints and they will be tapping the markets just as increased regulation and slowing growth in China make the credit markets more risk-averse.
Moody’s subscribers can access this report at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_187293
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NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at http://www.moodys.com.
This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on http://www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
Tiina Siilaberg
Vice President – Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
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