Le japon dans la tourmente. Dislocation, révulsion d’un paramètre central des marchés

Le yen monte. Alors que l’on veut qu’il baisse .

La parité dollar/yen est centrale dans notre système. Le yen est la monnaie de Carry, de financement du leverage et de la spéculation, on emprunte des yens , on les vend et on emploie dans des actifs libellés dans  une autre devise, actifs  qui offrent des rendements supérieurs.

Le dollar yen est la paire reine du systéme, elle est la clef du risk-on. Pour rester risk-on les marchés ont besoin d’un yen faible. Le graphique du dollar/yen était horrible avec une tête et épaule très baissière ; les graphiques sont inversés, quand ils baissent comme ci dessous, cela signifie que le yen monte contre le dollar, c’est à dire que le dollar baisse.  .

Le yen faible est l’objectif de toute la politique de Kuroda, c’est le symbole de la guerre des monnaie d’une part et de toute la politique des banques centrales d’autre part .

Le yen doit baisser, tel est l’impératif qui est à la fois, cause, conséquence et symbole . La baisse du yen est impérative, sa hausse risque de révulser tout le système.

Ici on voit que la tendance à la hausse du yen contre dollar s’accélère. La courbe baisse. Cela signifie un risque de deleveraging, un risque de mise en risk-off et surtout un effondrement de la crédibilité de Kuroda et du gouvernement japonais.

Cet effondrement est dramatique car il déborde sur tous les autres responsables de la conduite des affaires, il met le doigt sur leur échec, la vanité de leur politique,  et surtout leur impuissance . Ainsi Draghi qui cherche à faire baisser l’euro lui aussi comme Kuroda a échoué, les marchés lui ont fait monter l’euro à son nez et à sa barbe.

Bloomberg 

The yen strengthened to a 17-month high against the dollar and U.S. equity-index futures fell amid concern over the outlook for the global economy.

The yen gained even after a government official said authorities would take necessary action on foreign exchange if needed. Futures signaled the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will fall after rallying the most in almost a month. Gold gained after minutes of a Federal Reserve meeting reaffirmed U.S. policy makers aren’t rushing to raise interest rates.

Fed officials highlighted persistent risks facing the global outlook and threats these posed to the relative health of the American economy at their March meeting. Traders are assigning zero chance of the Fed increasing rates in April, with the odds not topping 50 percent until its December meeting. The economic uncertainty has left investors waiting for clues that may reveal when recovery will happen.

“There is a lot of fear in the market,” said Herbert Perus, head of equities at Raiffeisen Capital Management in Vienna, which has 28 billion euros ($32 billion) in assets under management. “A lot of large investors do not believe in rising stock prices and were positioning themselves for a downturn.”

The Labor Department releases jobless data on Thursday in a week light on economic data after the monthly payrolls report last week.

Currencies

The yen appreciated at least 0.8 against its 16 major peers, climbing 1.6 percent to 108.11 per dollar at 10:35 a.m. in London.

“The yen is being driven higher by risk aversion and by market participants testing the Bank of Japan’s tolerance toward a stronger currency,” said Thu Lan Nguyen, a foreign exchange strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.

The euro weakened against most of its major peers after ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet said the European Central Bank can boost the scale of its support to the euro-area economy yet further in the event that fresh risks to the outlook arise.

The Fed meeting records shed more light on the decision to keep rates unchanged last month. They showed U.S. policy makers debated an April rate hike, though several officials advocated a cautious approach, partly amid worries that slowing world growth could crimp the U.S. economy’s expansion.

 

 

Gold for immediate delivery pushed higher, rising 1.4 percent to $1,239.19 an ounce following Wednesday’s 0.7 percent retreat.

 

West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.1 percent to $37.70 a barrel following last session’s 5.2 percent jump, its steepest one-day gain since March 16. Brent was little changed at $39.82 a barrel.

U.S. crude stockpiles fell 4.94 million barrels last week, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed, after analysts predicted a 2.85 million-barrel gain. Refineries processed the most oil in three months as output and imports slipped.

Bonds

Treasuries gained, with the yield on 10-year notes falling three basis points to 1.73 percent. The rate on similar-maturity German bunds dropped two basis points to 0.10 percent.

The U.K. sold 10-year bonds at a record low yield of 1.514 percent at a sale on Tuesday. A measure of demand for the securities climbed to the highest since 2014.

Spain’s 10-year government bond yields climbed to a two-week high as investors bought 3.37 billion euros of conventional securities in an auction.

The nation’s 10-year bonds were sold at a higher yield that at the previous auction on March 17. The yield on the securities has climbed for six days, their longest streak since July 2012. The country, which hasn’t had an elected government since an inconclusive election in December and missed its 2015 budget-deficit goal, also sold inflation-linked debt in the auction of securities due between 2021 and 2046.

 

L’échec complet de la politique de Kuroda!

Laisser un commentaire