En l’espace de 24 heures, trois Banques Centrales ont surpris en ne faisant rien et en ne modifiant pas leur « narrative ». Ce fut le cas de la Fed, de la BOJ et de Bank of New Zeland.
La non-décision de la BOJ fait baisser le dollar et monter le Yen, cela convient aux USA.
Le pétrole suffit à soutenir les marchés et donc les Banques Centrales n’ont pas besoin d’utiliser (gaspiller) leurs munitions: le WTI a encore monté de 3% hier alors que les stocks ont grimpé plus que prévu.
Les autorités ne voient pas d’un mauvais oeil le dégonflement de la bulle des technos et des FANG.
-Taux inchangés
-objectifs de QQE inchangés
-inflation espérée à 2% repoussée à fin 2017
-les anticipations d’inflation ont fléchi
-croissance espérée du GDP en 2016 – révisée en baisse à 1,20% contre 1,50%
-core inflation espérée à +0,50% en 2016 contre 0,80% avant
BoJ Meeting – Key Points
- Interest Rates: Unchanged at -0.10%. Vote was 7 to 2
- QQE target: Unchanged at 80 trillion yen. Vote was 8 to 1
- Inflation forecasts: The BoJ expects inflation to reach 2.0% target within the financial year of 2017. Previously the BoJ expected the inflation target to be reached within the first half of 2017
- The BoJ noted that inflation expectations have weakened
- Japan GDP expected to grow 1.20% in 2016, lower than previous estimates of 1.50%
- Core CPI expected to grow 0.50% in the financial year 2016, compared to 0.80% expectations previously
The Bank of Japan’s policy decision today surprised the markets which were overwhelmingly in favor of strong policy actions.
INTOXICATION :
The speculation started to mount after late last week Bloomberg reported some ‘unnamed officials‘ hinting that the central bank would engage in some kind of easing similar to that of the ECB’s TLTRO schemes. This sent the yen weaker across the board as USDJPY started to build up strongly, briefly trading near 111.8 levels before falling sharply in a matter of minutes, making the BoJ event a perfect set up for a buy the rumor, sell the fact trade.
Ahead of the BoJ’s announcement, there was a strong data flow which included the release of Japan’s inflation data as well. Retail sales were down 1.10% while the National Core CPI fell 0.30% along with weaker household spending, all of which added to more anticipation that the BoJ would act today.
Besides the Bank of Japan, the RBNZ held rates steady at its meeting last night including the Federal Reserve, making all three central banks standing pat on policy, but giving clear signals that June will likely to turn out to be an important month for the markets.
USDJPY is trading at 109.35 currently, but the biggest move so far was in the GBPJPY, which is currently down 1.90% at the time of writing. The markets wait for the BoJ’s press conference where Kuroda is likely to elaborate more on the policy decision today.
GBPJPY – Intraday chart, 28/04
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