Un lecteur pro ( merci ) attire notre attention sur le fait que la ligne A/D publiée par le NYSE  est un mensonge. Elle a inscrit un nouveau plus haut, mais cela ne veut rien dire au plan technique pour les actions ordinaires car la computation A/D par le NYSE inclut beaucoup d’autres vehicules qui ne sont pas des actions. Nous sommes entièrement d ‘accord.

En tant que signal technique , le fait que la ligne A/D ai inscrit un nouveau top ne veut rien dire et nous le pensons égalment.

Cependant nous n’utilions pas les A/D comme indicateur technique dans le cadre d’une théorie de la confirmation, nous l’utilisons comme indicateur psychologique.

Nous l’utilisons en tant que mesure de la particpation à la Tendance, mesure de l »unanimité, mesure de l’appétit pour le Risk. et si la ligne A/D monte cela va dans le sens de l’accroissement de l’attrait pour le jeu.

L’indication qui nous est fournie, à nous, dans le cadre de notre théorie est bonne, l’appétit pour le jeu augmente, même si il ne rejoint pas des sommets.

Nous vous rappelons notre cadre analytique de base:

-les actifs financiers sont surévalués , tous et de beaucoup

-le champ des actifs financiers est unifié, ils ont le même sous jacent, le cash/les digits

-tous les opérateurs honnêtes et compétents le savent

-les marchés ne se retournent jamais par le seul fait qu’ils sont trop chers

-les marchés se retournent quand l’appétit pour le jeu chute et que la peur du risk de perdre monte

-jusqu’à présent les autorités ont soutenu l’appétit pour le jeu par le « jeu du Mistigri » qui consiste à distribuer du cash/digits gratuit qui ne rapportent rien , ce qui oblige ceux qui les reçoivent à s’en débarrasser à tout prix et à jouer/spéculer  avec, c’est à dire à prendre des risques.

A lire: de Marketwatch

There has been a lot of talk about the NYSE advance/decline line hitting new highs and how this indicator is suggesting the resurgence of a secular bull market today. What if I shared the fact that this NYSE indicator lies to you? It’s not an intentional, malicious lie, but what if you discovered that the NYSE was riddled with non-stock investments that cloud the index and, thus, deform such indicators as the advance/decline line?

The NYSE has evolved over the years to the point where, like a son who’s gone to live on an island only to return a year later without cutting his hair or shaving even once, you might not even recognize it. Long gone are the days of the New York Stock Exchange trading only stocks. In fact, when you take a dive into the guts of the exchange, what you’d find might surprise you.

Hidden behind the age-old acronym « NYSE » is a plethora of non-stock investments. Sure, you can find plenty of stocks you’re used to seeing on the S&P 500, but what you’d also find is an abundance of preferred issues, REITs, and closed-end fixed income funds. An extraordinary 52% of the NYSE consists of non-stock investments. Don’t you think this might affect the results when observing the current state of the NYSE advance/decline line?

In order to get a real look at the number of advancing stocks vs. those that are declining, you have to know where to look. It exhibits the NYSE advance/decline line of operating companies, or in other words, only individual stocks.

For a larger chart, please click here.

Notice the stark difference between the two charts. The first chart, which includes interest-rate-sensitive « safer » investments above parades a new high. Conversely, the second chart, which removes the rose-colored glasses from our field of vision, shows us the real truth — that individual stocks advancing vs. those declining is a metric that is nowhere close to a new high. Rather, it’s struggling to break north of overhead resistance, which resides back in November.

There are some investors and traders who are already aware of the information above. Whether you’re a professional « in the know » or someone who just learned something new today, the articles published on a new high in the NYSE advance/decline line is behavioral finance at its best.

Certain heuristics lead to a number of psychological errors when investing one’s hard-earned savings. We all want to grow our portfolios as fast and as safely as possible, but we’re all human. Amateurs and professionals alike suffer from different types of hindsight or confirmation errors. They subconsciously think that, because the market has risen for more than seven years, that it should continue rising. So a story on a new high in the NYSE advance/decline line is exactly what they want to hear, which is an error called Cognitive Consonance.

Conversely, many reading this column may get upset, since the information I’ve just shared may not confirm their hope for near-term higher stock market prices. As a result, these readers may feel compelled to underweight or completely disregard the information, since it doesn’t support their opinion (something called Cognitive Dissonance).

The stock market is a huge, psychological voting mechanism, where all the “votes” are cast in the form of stock trades. Rather than trying to predict the future of market movements, it is advisable to observe what the market is showing you and then adapt accordingly. Today, the market is exhibiting instability in the form of a fragile bear-market rally, combined with significant overhead resistance, all while entering the seasonally weak six months of the year.

Conditions such as those being observed in the current market landscape are ones that deserve both attention and caution. As Warren Buffett once said, « The best way to make a dollar is to not lose a dollar. »