Les stress tests euro échouent à rétablir la confiance

Les investisseurs restent sceptiques sur les résultats.

Voir plus bas l’article de Conrad Bertez  intitulé: un stress test qui en dit bien peu sur les banques

Les bancaires sont en baisse sur les marchés conduites par Unicrédit qui perdait 7,5%.

Barclays cède plus de 2% et Deutsche Bank 1,4%.

les investisseurs fuient les banques victimes d’une profitabilité très insuffisante, des taux d’intérêts trop bas, de trop de prêts non recouvrables ou non performants et des craintes de ralentissement économique. On craint aussi l’effet de contagion d’une crise bancaire italienne.

Stress-Tests Results Fail to Revive Faith as Europe Banks Fall

Bloomberg
Camila Russo

August 1, 2016 — 9:19 AM CEST
Updated on August 1, 2016 — 2:35 PM CEST

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Monte Paschi Worst of 51 Banks in EU Stress Tests

While the stress tests showed most of the region’s banks would keep an adequate level of capital in a crisis, investors remained skeptical about the results.

Lenders in the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 1.6 percent at 1:31 p.m. in London, reversing a gain of as much as 1.3 percent. UniCredit SpA sank 7.5 percent, while Britain’s Barclays Plc dropped 2.1 percent as it fared worse than Deutsche Bank AG, down 1.4 percent. Italy’s Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, the worst performer in the regulators’ exam, climbed 4 percent as it said it’s working on a plan involving private investors to help bolster its finances.

The stress-test results come at a time of growing pessimism about the industry, whose shares have already slumped the most among sectors this year. Not even record-low valuations relative to the broader market are enough to lure investors, with an sector hit by worries about profitability amid record-low interest rates, a weakening economy and a potential banking crisis in Italy.

“The market is interpreting that even with these relatively good results for most banks, additional capital increases can’t be ruled out,” said Nuria Alvarez, a bank analyst at Renta 4 Banco SA in Madrid. “The sector has been suffering all year and the investment thesis is still the same: low rates, low profitability, so even if you have enough capital, it’s still a very adverse situation. Our analysis says it’s the riskiest sector to be in right now, and the question is: sure they have the recommended capital ratios right now, but how long can they hold them in these conditions?”

Monte dei Paschi was the only of 51 banks to have its capital wiped out in the test, which puts lenders through a simulation of a severe recession over three years. For the company, which lost 2.7 billion euros ($3 billion) of market value in 2016, success depends in part on winning backing for a new fund that will buy the bank’s bad loans at prices that, according to at least one analyst, are higher than buyers have been willing to pay.

The exam is intended to give supervisors across the European Union a common basis for measuring and bolstering the firms’ financial resilience. In a break from past practice, the test had no pass/fail mark and didn’t specify capital shortfalls, though the conclusions give clues about persistent structural capital deficiencies across the region’s banking sector.

“Long term, it’s clear that some financial institutions will have to strengthen their capital and cut costs,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM EK in Eppstein, Germany. His firm oversees 250 million euros. “There is still a lot of work to do. It begs the question, how long until the next cycle in Europe’s banking crisis?”

For more about the stress tests, click here.

While banks in the Stoxx 600 rebounded 6.1 percent in July, they remained down 27 percent for 2016 as of Friday — and down 41 percent from their high last year, when traders were still optimistic about ECB stimulus. The U.K. vote to leave the European Union didn’t help — it triggered the biggest monthly selloff since October 2008.

 

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