Attendez vous à un regain de mauvais signaux venant de Chine. La Chine est un des maillons faibles du système dans la classe des émergents , nous pensons qu’elle est de plus en plus difficilement gérable et que la tenttaive de normalisation monétaire US va renforcer ses problêmes. La Chine, par son Peg est sous un étalon « dollar »; elle va souffrir. 

Shanghai bénéficie si on peut dire de la faiblesse du yuan et des fuites devant la monnaie.

November 11 – Reuters (Kevin Yao): “Chinese banks extended 651.3 billion yuan ($95.56 billion) in new yuan loans in October, below analysts’ expectations and down sharply from 1.22 trillion yuan in September.

Broad M2 money supply (M2) grew 11.6% from a year earlier, the central bank said on Friday, slightly above forecasts. Outstanding yuan loans grew by 13.1% by month-end on an annual basis.”

November 7 – Wall Street Journal (Saumya Vaishampayan and Lingling Wei): “The specter of capital flight is back in China. More money is leaving the world’s No. 2 economy again, threatening Beijing’s strategy of letting its currency weaken in a controlled fashion. In the latest evidence of a surge in outflows, China’s foreign reserves plunged $45.7 billion in October from the previous month to $3.12 trillion…

That is the largest drop since January, suggesting that outflows could be edging back up to the record-breaking levels of late last year and early this year. As much as $78 billion may have left China in September, according to Goldman Sachs…, the largest amount since the $100 billion-plus the firm estimates left the country in December and again in January.”

November 10 – Reuters (Elias Glenn): “Regulators in China have told banks new home mortgage loans in November must be below those issued in October, Shanghai Securities Journal reported…, as Beijing looks to curb rising leverage in the housing sector. Mortgages accounted for 35% of loans in the first half of 2016, but analysts estimate that jumped to 71% in July and August as frantic buying kick in thanks to rapidly rising prices.

China’s banking regulator previously asked lenders to step up risk management of property loans amid record gains in house prices that have raised concerns of price bubbles and ballooning debts. China’s new home prices rose in September at the fastest rate on record… Outstanding mortgage loans to individuals rose 33.4% to 17.93 trillion yuan ($2.65 trillion) from a year ago by the end of September…”

November 6 – Bloomberg: “The push by China’s policy makers to rein in property bubbles looks to be getting traction, according to early indicators from the nation’s biggest cities. Beijing home sales volume plunged 41% year-on-year last month while Shanghai’s slumped 18%, …after new purchase restrictions and tightened mortgage lending. Transactions fell 50% in smaller cities. Now policy makers must balance deflating property prices with safeguarding the expansion.”

November 7 – Bloomberg: “China’s policy makers are playing catch-up as investors get more creative in evading capital controls. The authorities are taking a series of steps to plug loopholes, such as a potential plan to curb transactions that use the bitcoin digital currency to take funds out of the country, as well as a statement from UnionPay Co. limiting mainlanders from using its cards to buy insurance in Hong Kong.

These add to more traditional measures, including an order seen as asking mainland banks to reduce foreign-exchange sales… ‘The People’s Bank of China is doing this now because data show capital outflow pressures remain significant and there are no signs of a reversal,’ said Ken Cheung, a currency strategist at Mizuho Bank… ‘It looks like the government will block outflow channels as and when they find them. This will slow the yuan’s internationalization and discourage foreign investment due to concern money will get locked up once invested.’”

November 7 – Financial Times (Gabriel Wildau): “China’s securitisation market has blossomed this year as authorities embrace financial innovation, with bankers packaging an eclectic mix of assets from dance ticket revenues to bridge tolls. Beijing approved the country’s first securitisation deals in 2005, but the programme was halted in 2008 after regulators observed the damage wreaked by risky mortgage securities in the US. The programme was revived in 2012, starting primarily with vanilla assets such as corporate loans, home mortgages and auto loans. This year, activity has shifted to corporate receivables, and issuance has soared. Banks and non-financial companies together completed 384 securitisation deals in the first nine months of 2016, up from 327 deals for all of 2015… Non-bank deals have accounted for 284 of this year’s total. In value terms, deals totalled Rmb584bn ($86bn) through the end of September, close to 2015’s full-year… ‘Almost every conceivable asset from anyone can be securitised. This makes the market far more diverse than in the US and Europe,’ says Pang Yang, chief executive of China Securitization Analytics… ‘For many companies, this is the only way they can raise capital at the moment.’”

November 8 – Bloomberg: “China’s $3.2 trillion corporate bond market is already starting to reel from rising interbank borrowing costs, and the traditional year-end funding crunch hasn’t even started yet. The yield premium for five-year AA rated notes over the sovereign climbed 10 bps in October as money market rates surged to an 18-month high.

Worse may be yet to come as lenders tend to hoard cash for year-end regulatory checks, prompting the overnight repurchase rate fixing to rise in December in four of the past five years, including a 33 bps jump in the last month of 2015… Any disruption in the market could make it harder for companies to refinance as 4.1 trillion yuan ($605bn) of bonds coming due next year.”

November 7 – Bloomberg: “China’s passenger-vehicle sales climbed for an eighth consecutive month as consumers rushed to buy small-engine autos ahead of a tax cut due to expire at year-end, boosting deliveries at local carmakers… Retail sales of cars, sport utility and multipurpose vehicles increased 20% to 2.22 million units last month…”

November 8 – Bloomberg: “China’s exports fell for a seventh month, leaving policy makers reliant on domestic growth engines to hit their economic expansion goals. Overseas shipments dropped 7.3% from a year earlier in October in dollar terms. Imports slipped 1.4%. Trade surplus widened to $49.1 billion. A depreciation of about 9% in the yuan since August 2015 has cushioned the blow from tepid global demand, but failed to give shipments a sustained boost. Rising input costs and surging wages have flattened exporter profit margins…”