Destruction d’emplois aux USA, effet des hurricanes mais hausse des salaires

Le BLS fait état de 33,000  destructions d’emplois.

Mais les révisions posent problème avec juillet révisé de +189,000 to à 138,000,  et aout de  +156,000 to +169,000. La moyenne des trois mois ressort à    91,000.

Nombre d’américains au travail en hausse de  906,000 à  154.435 millions, soit +1,6%.

Chute du taux de chomage de  4.4% to 4.2%,.

1.47 millions de persones avaient un  travail mais ne pouvaient travailler à cause de la météo.

forte hausse des gains horaires  de + 0.5% M/M, contre  0.3% attendu. année sur année la hausse des gains horaires passe à  2.9%, contre  2.5% attendu.

D’ou la forte hausse de la probailité de hausse des taux en décembre à 75%.  

Le taux de participation à la force de travail rebondit de 62,9% à 63,1%

En Prime pour les pros, un commentaire complet et de qualité

This morning’s employment report for September showed a 33K decrease in total nonfarm payrolls, which was worse than forecasts and is most likely the effect of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. The consensus was for 90K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%. July and August nonfarm payrolls were revised for a total loss of 38K.

Here is an excerpt from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey.

Here’s the BLS’ note about the hurricanes:

Hurricanes Irma and Harvey
Hurricane Irma made landfall in Florida on September 10–during the reference period for both the establishment and household surveys–causing severe damage in Florida and other parts of the Southeast. Hurricane Harvey made landfall in Texas on August 25–prior to the September reference periods–resulting in severe damage in Texas and other areas of the Gulf Coast.

Our analysis suggests that the net effect of these hurricanes was to reduce the estimate of total nonfarm payroll employment for September. There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate. No changes were made to either the establishment or household survey estimation procedures for the September figures. For both surveys, collection rates generally were within normal ranges, both nationally and in the affected states. In the establishment survey, employees who are not paid for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month are not counted as employed. In the household survey, persons with a job are counted as employed even if they miss work or the entire survey reference week (the week including the 12th of the month), regardless of whether or not they are paid. For both surveys, national estimates do not include Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Further discussion of the impact of the recent hurricanes on the September estimates can be found in the Commissioner’s Statement on the Employment Situation, at For additional information on how severe weather affects employment data, see Question 8 in the Frequently Asked Questions section of this news release.

BLS will release the state estimates of employment and unemployment on October 20, 2017, at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).

Here is a snapshot of the monthly percent change in Nonfarm Employment since 2000. We’ve added a 12-month moving average to highlight the long-term trend.

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PAYEMS Monthly Change

The unemployment peak for the current cycle was 10.0% in October 2009. The chart here shows the pattern of unemployment, recessions and the S&P Composite since 1948. Unemployment is usually a lagging indicator that moves inversely with equity prices (top series in the chart). Note the increasing peaks in unemployment in 1971, 1975 and 1982. The mirror relationship appears to be repeating itself with the most recent and previous bear markets.

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Unemployment and the Market

Now let’s take a look at the unemployment rate as a recession indicator or more specifically the cyclical troughs in the UR as a recession indicator. The next chart features a 12-month moving average of the UR with the troughs highlighted. As the inset table shows, the correlation between the MA troughs and recession starts is remarkably close.

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Unemployment and Recessions

We’ve added another chart to illustrate the reality of the unemployment rate – the unemployment rate divided by the labor force participation rate.

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The next chart shows the unemployment rate for the civilian population unemployed 27 weeks and over. This rate has fallen significantly since its 4.4% all-time peak in April 2010. It is now at 1.1%, unchanged from the previous month.

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Unemployed 27+ Weeks

The next chart is an overlay of the unemployment rate and the employment-population ratio. This is the ratio of the number of employed people to the total civilian population age 16 and over.

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Employment Population Ratio

The inverse correlation between the two series is obvious. We can also see the accelerating growth of women in the workforce and two-income households in the early 1980’s. Following the end of the last recession, the employment-population has been range bound between 58.2% and 60.0% — the lower end of which that harkens back to the 58.1% ratio of March 1953, when Eisenhower was president of a country of one-income households, the Korean War was still underway, and rumors were circulating that soft drinks would soon be sold in cans.

The latest ratio of 60.4% is currently at its post-recession high.

For a confirming view of the secular change the US is experiencing on the employment front, the next chart illustrates the labor force participation rate. We’re at 63.1%, up from 62.9% last month.

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Labor Force Participation Rate

The employment-population ratio and participation rate will be interesting to watch going forward. The first wave of Boomers will continue to be a downward force on this ratio. The oldest of them were eligible for early retirement when the Great Recession began, and the transition of the Boomer cohort to full retirement age won’t end until 2030.

What is the average length of unemployment? As the next chart illustrates, we are perhaps seeing a paradigm shift — the result of global outsourcing and efficiencies of technology. The post-recession duration of unemployment remains high at 26.8 weeks, although that’s well off the 40.7-week all-time high in late 2011.

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Duration of Unemployment

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ broadest measure of unemployment is the U6 series, which includes the total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons. This series dates from 1994.

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U6 Unemployment

The U6 series is currently at 8.3% and is currently at its post-recession low.

Notes: The start date of 1948 in the charts above was determined by the earliest monthly employment data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The best source for the historic data is the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.


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