Gilets jaunes, le décompte officiel : 280 000

« Le gouvernement a entendu le message porté par les gilets jaunes » a déclare Castaner.

---

 

---

[BloombergQ] Fed’s Job Gets a Lot More Complicated After Likely December Hike

[BloombergQ] Pence-Xi Showdown at APEC Shows U.S.-China Divide Only Widening

[Reuters] Pence vows no end to tariffs until China bows

[WSJ] U.S., China Clash Over Trade, Security at Pacific Summit

[WSJ] Inflated Home Appraisals Drain Billions From Government Insurance Fund

[FT] Investors signal concern over corporate credit market

Le crédit se détériore clairement . Le proxy , l’ETF des bonds investment grade corporate construit un processus de sommet étalé sur plusieurs années. Ce processus a dessiné des résistances bien confirmées au fil des années, si ces résistances viennent à etre enfoncées, c’est l’Aventure.

General Electric est le vrai canary dans la mine.

« Investment-grade bond spreads surged to the widest level in two years as a rash of concerns about corporate debt dented investor confidence. The spread on the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. IG Corporate Bond Index widened to 128 bps over Treasuries at the close Thursday, the widest since December 2016. The 6 bps jump was the most since the Brexit vote two years ago. Bond ‘buyers have been relatively indifferent to corporations, and they focused more on rating,’ said David Sherman, president of Cohanzick Management LLC. ‘And now they’re starting to bifurcate the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots. » »

Les pertes s’accumulent et la liquidité s’évanouit:

Losses are mounting, and liquidity is waning. U.S. corporate Credit is losing its « moneyness, » with profound financial and economic ramifications. The June 2007 subprime eruption marked the inflection point for the « moneyness » of mortgage Credit. The « marginal » borrower/buyer lost access to cheap Credit, commencing a spectacular cycle’s downside. Yet it was when the marketplace questioned the safety and liquidity of previously perceived « moneylike » « AAA » mortgage securities (and the money market borrowings of those heavily leveraged in « AAA »!) that full-fledged crisis took hold.

La Fed s’inquiète deja, elle montre qu’elle n »a pas l’estomac que l’on pretait à Powell: on serait deja proche du point ou la politique serait neutre donc pas tres loin de l’équilibre! Ni trop ni trop peu!
November 16 – CNBC (Jeff Cox): « The Federal Reserve is close to the point of being ‘neutral’ on interest rates and should predicate further increases on economic data, the central bank’s vice chairman said Friday.

Recent appointee Richard Clarida told CNBC’s Steve Liesman that nearly three years of increases have brought the Fed’s short-term interest rate near where it is neither restrictive nor stimulative, a key consideration when considering the future path of monetary policy. ‘As you move in the range of policy that by some estimates is close to neutral, then with the economy doing well it’s appropriate to sort of shift the emphasis toward being more data dependent,’ Clarida said