Taken at face value, the US August #jobs report increases the probability that the highly data-dependent Fed will not hike again in this cycle as
Job gains (including revisions) moderated (187,000 and -110,000);
The unemployment rate went up to 3.8%;
Labor force…

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) September 1, 2023

Private sector payroll growth is slowing and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in August

• The U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in August
• Payroll growth for June and July was revised down
• Private sector payrolls are +140,000 on average over the last three months pic.twitter.com/BeuabCa6CM

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 1, 2023

The index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers, which combines hiring, wages, and hours, ticked up in August

The index is up 6.1% over the last year and 7.2% at a three-month annualized rate pic.twitter.com/ILHvrmSewK

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 1, 2023

Crude oil prices are quietly up 30% in 2 months and quickly nearing $90.00 again.

The national average gas price just hit $3.83, in-line with last year's seasonal record.

Gas prices are now 31% above the 5-year average and rising rapidly.

We expect Saudi Arabia and OPEC to… pic.twitter.com/1ftGVO0YBK

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 1, 2023

Meanwhile:

China's holdings of US Treasuries just reached its lowest level in 14 years.

Now down almost $481B from peak levels. pic.twitter.com/gIT8dzzOol

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 1, 2023

Good Morning from Germany, where wages are also rising again in real terms. In Q2, real wages rose 0.1% YoY, first time since Q2 2021 that gross wages & salaries rose faster than inflation. This was due to the unusually strong 6.6% increase in nominal wages. pic.twitter.com/eCeQ53lMf0

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 1, 2023