4 961 vues 22 janv. 2025 #macro#Investing#ChinaIn this interview, I have the chance to speak with Louis-Vincent Gave from Gavekal Research and discuss his latest views and takes on a number of topics and why he thinks all things align for Chinese equities to rally.
- We talk about US China Relations under the new Trump administration.
- The development of Chinese and US bonds and the US Dollar
- Europe’s new role in the world
- Prospects of Chinese EV
0:00 – 2:26 Teaser 2:26 – 4:33 Intro 4:33 – 6:42 Louis’ Vita 6:42 – 15:13 Trump & China 15:13 – 20:23 Bond Markets 20:23 – 25:44 Chinese Bull Market 25:44 – 30:35 China’s Finance System 30:35 – 35:08 Innovation, TikTok & Red Book 35:08 – 39:55 Fall of the Great Wall 39:55 – 42:43 Europe’s Perspective 42:43 – 47-07 Chinese EV 47:07 Outtro #macro#Investing#China
ChapitresTout afficher
Teaser0:00Intro2:26Louis’ Vita4:33Trump & China6:42Bond Markets15:13Chinese Bull Market20:23China’s Finance System25:44Innovation, TikTok & Red Book30:35
Transcription
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5/9 China’s cash-for-clunkers campaign totalled 150 billion yuan in 2024, and was hailed as a successful driver of purchases of vehicles and household appliances last year. This year it will expand to encompass other consumer goods, such as smartphones and electronic devices.
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6/9 Xing says Beijing has ample room to lift welfare spending, because China still lags well behind other economies. Welfare spending accounts for 20 – 25% of GDP in many OECD nations, and 10 -15% in middle-income countries. For China, the figure is just 8%.
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7/9 According to Xing, this 8% figure marks a doubling compared to 2012. Xing nonetheless points out that China’s fiscal policy still “faces the need to transition from the development side to the social welfare and consumption side.”
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8/9 Xing said Beijing’s messaging on the need to increase consumption and correct structural imbalances in China’s economy is unmistakable. “The objective of these measures is to stimulate consumption, and sends a positive signal,” he said.
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9/9 China hopes that support for consumption will also help address one of the economy’s recent problems – weak inflation. Xing said that some economists expect government spending of around 10 trillion yuan over a two year period, likely enough to deal with the problem of
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