« Ils étaient sur le point de se croiser de justesse. Tout à fait normal. Sans doute sous contrôle GPS. La trajectoire du Front Eagle change au mauvais moment, ce qui correspond à un brouillage GPS. Il semble qu’un humain ait pris le contrôle et ait ensuite atténué l’ampleur de l’accident. Pas certain, mais probable.«
Ci dessous images du pétrolier Adalynn en feu dans le golfe d’Oman après une grave collision avec le pétrolier Front Eagle la nuit dernière. La zone d’impact est clairement visible et brûle violemment. La majeure partie de la superstructure est également en flammes.
@Osinttechnical
New footage of the tanker Adalynn ablaze in the Gulf of Oman after a severe collision with the tanker Front Eagle last night. Impact area is clearly visible and violently burning. Most of the superstructure is ablaze as well. x.com/osinttechnical…
Opinion de ED G
D’après une analyse visuelle de la vidéo capturée du pétrolier Adalynn, plusieurs caractéristiques soulèvent immédiatement des signaux d’alarme si nous devons évaluer cet incident comme une « collision » plutôt qu’un événement cinétique ciblé :
1. Modèle de combustion et signature d’explosion : L’incendie semble concentré au milieu du navire, avec des jets de fumée et de flammes verticaux jaillissant d’un point de combustion interne. Cela correspond à une détonation interne ou externe, et non à un frottement mécanique, un raclement ou une déformation de la coque généralement associés à une collision entre navires. Le panache de chaleur et les jets de feu verticaux suggèrent la combustion de matières volatiles, probablement à l’intérieur ou à proximité des réservoirs de carburant.
2. Orientation des dommages de la coque : On observe un noircissement important et une dégradation structurelle directement au niveau de la partie supérieure du réservoir, et non le long de la ligne de flottaison. S’il s’agissait d’un choc indirect, voire direct, provenant de la coque d’un autre pétrolier (comme le Front Eagle), on s’attendrait à des éraflures latérales ou à des brèches correspondant à un impact de quille à quille, et non à une perforation et une combustion concentrées bien au-dessus de la ligne de charge.
3. Composition du panache de fumée : La fumée est épaisse, noire et huileuse, ce qui correspond à la combustion du pétrole brut. Cela renforce l’hypothèse d’une brèche dans un compartiment hautement inflammable avec inflammation immédiate. En cas de collision mécanique, un incendie est possible, mais moins probable, sauf en cas d’explosion secondaire (par exemple, explosion air-carburant ou explosion d’armes).
4. Asymétrie des dommages : Seul un côté du navire (visible) présente une défaillance catastrophique, tandis que l’intégrité structurelle reste intacte ailleurs. Là encore, cela suggère une détonation localisée plutôt qu’un transfert d’énergie dû à un impact cinétique. Une véritable collision, surtout entre des navires de cette taille et de cette masse, produit généralement des effets structurels plus importants.
EVALUATION STRATEGIQUE : Il est de plus en plus difficile de concilier des dégâts explosifs d’une telle ampleur avec un accident de navigation classique.
Si l’on considère le contexte géopolitique plus large, la montée des tensions entre les États-Unis et l’Iran, les multiples incidents maritimes dans le détroit d’Ormuz et les postures psychologiques et cinétiques coordonnées des acteurs étatiques, les éléments de preuve penchent en faveur d’un sabotage intentionnel ou d’une guerre asymétrique.
Il ne s’agissait peut-être pas d’une frappe de missile ou d’un impact de drone au sens classique du terme. Il pourrait s’agir d’une mine ventouse, d’un engin incendiaire embarqué ou d’un autre sabotage cinétique dissimulé sous couvert d’une « collision ».
Le récit d’un accident maritime est utile politiquement. Il permet d’éviter l’escalade tout en obtenant l’effet escompté : créer des ravages dans le secteur des assurances, resserrer les goulets d’étranglement pétroliers et tester la capacité de réaction navale adverse.
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What’s Going on With Shipping?524 k abonnés
S’abonner
17 juin 2025 #supplychain#fire#fronteagleCollision between Tankers outside Straits of Hormuz June 17, 2025
In this episode, Sal Mercogliano — a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner — discusses the initial reports of the collision between the Very Large Crude Carrier Front Eagle and the tanker Adalynn. #supplychain#fire#fronteagle#adalynn#collision Support What’s Going on With Shipping via: Patreon: http://www.patreon.com/wgowshipping Twitter: @mercoglianos Bluesky: @mercoglianos.bsky.social Facebook: @wgowshipping Email: mercoglianosal@gmail.com Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0B9AHrs… Marine Traffic marinetraffic.com
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@ulexite-tv
il y a 10 heuresYou are ON IT. Broadcasting from your hotel room late at night. We rely on you for the news, and you DELIVER!
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8 réponses
@JR-rx2ke
il y a 4 heuresSal is the Walter Cronkrite of Worldwide shipping news. Thanks Sal.
56Répondre
8 réponses
@DuaneKerzic
il y a 39 minutesIn the 90’s when I was installing a cable across the Barnegat Bay from Tuckerton to Holgate the Air Force would fly training missions in out into the offshore area and turn on their GPS spoofing. It wasn’t that bad but all of a sudden the location of the cable plow would move by 1,000′ or more. Total PIA and wasted a lot of our time since we’d have to stop plowing until they stopped spoofing the GPS.Lire la suite
@michaelinsc9724
il y a 2 heuresHave a good conference, Sal!
@gjm5959
il y a 1 heureThanks for keeping us posted Sal. Great job
@grantechsweng5268
il y a 6 heureswow looking good for late night.
@patmcbride9853
il y a 3 heuresPosting a watch AND using the mark I eyeballs is even more important in that region, and very important right now.
@Retired_911
il y a 10 heuresThanks for the update!
36Répondre
@mgtowbylogic5592
il y a 10 heuresI knew I could get the real news from you, thanks brother.
@Bruce-Holdaway
il y a 7 heuresSal, I always love how detailed you report on incidents. Great work. Thank you.
11Répondre
@atlasnetwork7855
il y a 4 heuresGPS is primarily a military technology for missile guidance and military aircraft navigation. It’s civilian uses are secondary. During a war disrupting GPS ought to be a priority.
@robjohnson8660
il y a 10 heuresThanks for the late night
25Répondre
@Richard-od7yd
il y a 4 heuresWHO has the capacity to GPS SPOOF OR JAM ? I’m guessing that the list is a short one. Thanking you Professor for your attention to detail.
4 réponses
@L.S.videos
il y a 4 heuresYour video is in the swiss news! Albeit in a tabloid and they did not give you any credits but its your video. Congrats! Glad I found this channel.
@nothandmade9686
il y a 9 heuresThat old skill of looking out of the window.
43Répondre
4 réponses
@Socaltrainwatcher
il y a 10 heuresGood to hear you’re in a hotel. I was wondering what happened to the usual background. Great to see the Hawaiian shirt made it to NY. As for the spoofing, that doesn’t surprise me with all of the aerial action that’s currently taking place in that part of the world. It stands to reason that GPS would be one of the first things affected.Lire la suite
@SourSpaceGames
il y a 10 heuresknew sal would know whats up
30Répondre
@mohammedshoaib3106
il y a 9 heures (modifié)we are here in khor fakkan anchorage last night and were hearing the distress calls over VHF late night around 2AM it seems like mt front eagle and mt adalyn were in contact with each other and adlynn was on fire as heard on vhf
8 réponses
@0e32
il y a 7 heuresSame in the Baltic Sea…a lot of GPS Spoofing from the russians. Greetings from Sweden.
@MichaelHolloway
il y a 8 heuresI was on a war chat livestream 3 hours ago and your track resolved what we were seeing in posts on Twitter – an accident, not WWIII. Thanks for posting.
@dirtyeric
il y a 10 heuresGPS spoofing easily can be a factor, I have personally experience more than my fair share of it in the eastern Med, but I am not sure how these two hit each other, radar tracking does not use gps and neither do your Mk I eyeballs and vhf…the fall out will be interesting.
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8 réponses
@Matt-w7f
il y a 10 heuresExcellent work Sal – timely and concise. Thank you
@13699111
il y a 28 minutesThank you for your reporting about the seriousness of the global situation that affects everyone Sal. Stay strong and safe Sir.Répondre
@davidgubert1883
il y a 5 heuresGPS is no excuse. What has happened to basic seamanship?
@66kandFrends
il y a 9 heuresWe need to bring back portly men with muttonchops and top hats prepared to bark ‘Claim denied, good day to you Sir’ at ship owners, and we’ll see how fast basic safety standards and equipment improve on vessels.
@kaybegreen7021
il y a 10 heuresI love your shirt !! Attacks on private shipping is the lowest of the low for thieves, pirates and politically motivated monster felons.
10Répondre
@krispypriest5116
il y a 6 heuresThanks Sal. Was on a live stream last night and knew you would give us a proper update. 
@adriftandabroad
il y a 8 heuresSuper fast update Sal, wasn’t expecting this until tomorrow at least. What crazy timing for this incident.
@markb5710
il y a 9 heuresI’d have thought that if the tanker turned because of GPS spoofing, the Marine traffic track would also show the effects (for ships in the area). The video seems to show a stable recording of the tracks of multiple ships. All those Marine traffic tracks are just GPS data passed through by each ship, so if they were spoofed, I’d expect to see more track variation.Lire la suite
28Répondre
@carlstineman274
il y a 9 heuresAlmost looks like Front Eagle, as the burdened vessel, was sailing a course to pass behind Adalynn. Maybe FE’s navigation instruments, correctly or not, were showing that she could not safety cross ahead of Adalynn.
@nunyabizness9169
il y a 2 heuresSal, thank you for this great briefing!
@wewillrockyou1986
il y a 7 heuresGPS is the last thing that should be preventing two vessels colliding… I could maybe understand if they ran aground because of spoofing, but hitting another ship?? Crew error for sure.
1 réponse
@michellebockmann7630
il y a 9 heuresSal you’re a legend!!! great coverage
@kalolawahine9182
il y a 8 heuresReally Really Do Appreciate You️Lire la suite
@peterebel7899
il y a 8 heuresGlad there is no US aircraft carrier involved in this case.
@teresabarnes-matych
il y a 9 heuresHawaiian shirts become you, thanks for the update! Crazy times we live in.
@iffn
il y a 8 heuresTo me, this seems to indicate that ships need to update their navigation systems. If you’re GPS system is telling you that you’ve just teleported, it’s probably time to ignore that system for a while. Also, given the right system on both ships, even a spoofed signal should be be useable for relative positioning to avoid collisions, since the error should be very similar over short distances.Lire la suite
@Siskiyous6
il y a 58 minutesLast night as people speculated, I knew when there was good information, you would deliver it.Répondre
@leluchichee5716
il y a 9 heuresWow, thanks for this video update. I stand corrected.
@johnB-et5ux
il y a 5 heuresI am glad I found your channel, it is a beacon of clarity.
1 réponse
@tealkerberus748
il y a 8 heuresI remember during the Gulf War that a whole lot of farmers with GPS and autopilot on their tractors had a whole lot of trouble all of a sudden. They use precision planting systems that are supposed to put their tyre tracks within 20mm of where they drove the previous year, to minimise the amount of the soil that is compacted from the wheels and plant this year’s crop in between the lines of decaying root balls of last year’s crop, and suddenly the system wasn’t able to do that. Don’t trust GPS and satellite navigation when there’s a war on, folks.
brunobertez 