Jeff Currie, the world’s leading commodity expert from Goldman Sachs, just delivered warning in his Bloomberg interview.

Despite oil prices being held artificially low in recent days through apparent manipulation, he states flatly there is no policy response that can stop this ascent in crude. The Iran conflict has triggered a historic supply shock via the Strait of Hormuz that overrides every traditional fix.

“There is no policy response that can stop this ascent in crude — none.”

The ongoing Iran conflict has shut or severely restricted the Strait of Hormuz.

This chokepoint normally moves 20% of global seaborne oil trade or 18-21 million barrels per day.

THE SPR ILLUSION

IEA’s record 400-million-barrel strategic petroleum reserve release sounds massive.

But the maximum sustainable flow rate is only 2 million barrels per day.

That barely offsets a fraction of the current daily disruption from Hormuz.

THE RECOVERY TIMELINE

Supply-chain damage will take months to unwind even if fighting stops tomorrow.

Ships are misplaced, insurance cancelled, rigs evacuated and ports disrupted.

This chaos impacts LNG, fertilizers, metals and global trade far beyond oil.

THE TIGHT MARKET CONTEXT

Oil balances were already tight before the crisis due to long-term underinvestment.

Geopolitical security premium has countries and firms hoarding supply.

High global debt makes this spike even more damaging than 1970s shocks.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Recent manipulated oil prices fail to reflect the massive disruption underway. Jeff Currie’s analysis proves crude should already be trading much higher with no quick government or central bank solution in sight.