I – Rappel du texte publié il y a un mois sur l’or
II – Yellen Skywalker et l’ordre de l’univers
C’est le moment de vérité pour l’or. Ce qui va se passer dans les jours (ou même peut-être heures) qui viennent va décider de la tendance de ces prochains mois. Hausse ou baisse ?
Je vous envoie un graphique qui s’arrête au 29 janvier dernier.
Vous y verrez la figure chartiste dont je parle, le “biseau descendant” (declining wedge in English).
C’est la ligne du haut qui m’intéresse et qui lie le haut du 22 janvier 2015 (à $ 1305 sans plus de précision) à celui du 15 octobre 2015 (à $ 1190 sans plus de précision). Il y a eu 193 jours de trading entre ces deux dates.
Ainsi, je peux calculer quel niveau l’or doit franchir pour casser cette ligne vers le haut. Hier, ce niveau était de 1143.5234 (sur la base des chiffres que je dispose). Or, le plus haut sur le marché spot a été de 1143 ! Manqué pour quelques cents semble-t-il…
Alors soit :
1) l’or franchit $ 1150 franchement et ce sera le signe d’une hausse violente de plusieurs mois (première cible vers les $ 1300),
soit
2) son cours chute et s’il casse son bas de décembre (à $ 1045 et des poussières), on connaîtra une dernière baisse violente. Dans ce cas, le rebond de l’or serait repoussé de plusieurs mois.
Donc un moment de vérité pour l’or…
Quoiqu’il arrive, vous pourrez vous en rendre compte tout seul.
« Resistance Break: Bullish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the resistance line is broken in convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break above the previous reaction high for further confirmation. Once resistance is broken, there can sometimes be a correction to test the newfound support level. »
Gold did break its resistance. Most of the time it is bullish. We are dealing with odds not certainties. I’m bullish because those odds. I’m not certain of anything except death and taxes.
Gold could retest its resistance (go down to test it) or rise. I will feel more confident if gold rise further and goes above its past October peak (around $ 1190).
Yellen Skywalker et l’ordre de l’univers.
Here is a recent monthly essay by Russell Clark, Horseman’s CIO, which has a Star Wars theme:
Yellen Skywalker inched down the corridor. There was barely any light, but the force guided her steps. Soon she felt the presence of her father, Deflation Vader. His voice rasped out a greeting.
“I have been expecting you. I can feel that the force is strong with you. Good. The Emperor has foreseen that your powers would grow, and that you would become our ally. It is time for you to join me and restore order to the universe!”
“You are wrong Vader – I would never go to dark side!”
“Ha ha ha – dark side – what dark side? Did Obi-Wan Ben Bernanke never tell you the true nature of the force?”
“What true nature?” asks a troubled Yellen.
“The force is all around us, and seeks harmony and balance. It is neither light nor dark, but cyclical. Mountains must have valleys. Light must create shadow. Action and reaction, this is all that life is. Your belief in the light side of the force, and the need for you to strenuously push it on all things, to create inflation in all things, is touching, but quite misguided.”
Vader continued “Low interest rates and debt creation in particular is an object that is neither inherently inflationary nor deflationary, but only becomes a tool of the light or the dark side if it moves out of balance, or harmony. You see my jedi, debt accumulation is inflationary when taken on and deflationary when paid back. The longer you push your light side of the force, the stronger the dark side becomes! You have in fact been my greatest ally!” Vader let out a bellowing laugh.
“Search your feelings Yellen, you know that I speak the truth”. Yellen knew the words Vader spoke were true. Despite monumental efforts, the light side had only generated minor inflation, even with previously unheard interest rates and even with their new monetary techniques. She thought back to the day her mentor Obi-Wan Ben Bernanke disappeared off to some far flung colony – his parting words as he passed responsibility for the light side to Yellen were cryptic – “Whatever you do, do not do anything sensible”. But Yellen knew she faced a dilemma, if she continued to fight the dark side she only made it stronger, and the ultimate move to harmony more difficult. Or should she succumb now, and hope that dark side influence would not destroy too much. In her heart, she made her decision.
“You are right father, I can see that. What must I do?”
“Why my child, you must do nothing, just cease to fight the dark side, and it shall restore harmony to the universe as surely as a rising tide destroys footprints in the sand. Come, let us watch”
Vader and Yellen moved over to an observation window. From the view she could see the dancing constellations that made up the financial universe. Many shone as brightly as they could. Record employment, record car sales, all-time highs in the stock market. Yellen let go of the light side of the force. Almost instantaneously, the Transport star system began to darken and disappear. The high yield nebula went into super nova and slowly began to darken. And then nothing. But as Yellen watched all the bright constellations began to darken ever so slightly. And Yellen could feel a tremor from a billion traders’ hearts, as fear began to replace greed in their hearts. She wondered what she had done, as she stood next to Vader, and watched the lights go out.
“I have been expecting you. I can feel that the force is strong with you. Good. The Emperor has foreseen that your powers would grow, and that you would become our ally. It is time for you to join me and restore order to the universe!”
“You are wrong Vader – I would never go to dark side!”
“Ha ha ha – dark side – what dark side? Did Obi-Wan Ben Bernanke never tell you the true nature of the force?”
“What true nature?” asks a troubled Yellen.
“The force is all around us, and seeks harmony and balance. It is neither light nor dark, but cyclical. Mountains must have valleys. Light must create shadow. Action and reaction, this is all that life is. Your belief in the light side of the force, and the need for you to strenuously push it on all things, to create inflation in all things, is touching, but quite misguided.”
Vader continued “Low interest rates and debt creation in particular is an object that is neither inherently inflationary nor deflationary, but only becomes a tool of the light or the dark side if it moves out of balance, or harmony. You see my jedi, debt accumulation is inflationary when taken on and deflationary when paid back. The longer you push your light side of the force, the stronger the dark side becomes! You have in fact been my greatest ally!” Vader let out a bellowing laugh.
“Search your feelings Yellen, you know that I speak the truth”. Yellen knew the words Vader spoke were true. Despite monumental efforts, the light side had only generated minor inflation, even with previously unheard interest rates and even with their new monetary techniques. She thought back to the day her mentor Obi-Wan Ben Bernanke disappeared off to some far flung colony – his parting words as he passed responsibility for the light side to Yellen were cryptic – “Whatever you do, do not do anything sensible”. But Yellen knew she faced a dilemma, if she continued to fight the dark side she only made it stronger, and the ultimate move to harmony more difficult. Or should she succumb now, and hope that dark side influence would not destroy too much. In her heart, she made her decision.
“You are right father, I can see that. What must I do?”
“Why my child, you must do nothing, just cease to fight the dark side, and it shall restore harmony to the universe as surely as a rising tide destroys footprints in the sand. Come, let us watch”
Vader and Yellen moved over to an observation window. From the view she could see the dancing constellations that made up the financial universe. Many shone as brightly as they could. Record employment, record car sales, all-time highs in the stock market. Yellen let go of the light side of the force. Almost instantaneously, the Transport star system began to darken and disappear. The high yield nebula went into super nova and slowly began to darken. And then nothing. But as Yellen watched all the bright constellations began to darken ever so slightly. And Yellen could feel a tremor from a billion traders’ hearts, as fear began to replace greed in their hearts. She wondered what she had done, as she stood next to Vader, and watched the lights go out.
brunobertez 