L’emploi  Us décélère en tendance, mais rebondit un peu en JUIN  selon ADP. Ceci annonce des chiffres l’emploi officiel nettement meilleur que les derniers chiffres calamiteux qui ont été publiés en Mai. En utilisant une regressionavec les créations d’emplois officerlles , on peut prévoir que demain on devrait annoncer autour de 169 000 créations de postes.

Private payrolls in the US increased by 172,000 in June, according to this morning’s release of the ADP Employment Report.

The gain, although modest by the standards of the last several years, marks the strongest advance since March. But the annual pace of growth dipped to a three-year low, providing more evidence that the labor market’s expansion continues to decelerate.

“Job growth revived last month from its spring slump,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, which co-produces the data with ADP. “Job growth remains healthy except in the energy and trade-sensitive manufacturing sectors. Large multinationals are struggling a bit, and Brexit won’t help, but small- and mid-sized companies continue to add strongly to payrolls.”

 

The overall trend, however, is showing signs of aging.

ADP’s estimate of private payrolls eased to a 1.9% year-over-year rate, the slowest annual pace since June 2013. Nonetheless, the respectable monthly increase implies that tomorrow’s June update from the Labor Department will post a sizable rebound after May’s tepid increase in private payrolls of just 25,000—a five-year low.

Using a linear regression framework to model the relationship between the ADP and government data points to a gain of 169,000 for private payrolls in tomorrow’s Labor Department release for June, or fractionally below the 170,000 increase that’s projected via Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. If the prediction holds, the news will provide support for arguing that the dramatic downshift in May was noise.

 

Keep in mind that even if the consensus forecast is accurate for tomorrow, the government’s numbers will fall in line with today’s ADP figures by reflecting the slowest year-over-year gain in three years.

As such, the news will reaffirm that view that job growth is still respectable, but the expansion’s strength is waning. Extrapolating the trend out into the near-term future suggests that the US economic growth will remain sluggish. Along the way, the crowd’s tolerance for disappointing economic news will continue to fa