C’est en Chine que les choses sérieuses se passent

La tentative des autorités de reprendre en mains le ryhtme de production de crédit et d’inciter au deleveraging  plonge le marché fiancier dans le chaos. On évalue à plus de 450 milliards de dollars le bain de sang sur les marchés d’actions et d’obligations. Sans compter les dégats hors marché, les dégats de l’ombre, du Shadow! Les marchés de refinancement se grippent. On s’interroge sur les effets de contagion dans le monde, on les voit déja sur les matières premières.

Nous vous rappelons que nous considérons que la situation est ingérable, mais que les catastrophes ne peuvent se produire avant les réunions politiques importantes de la rentrée car sinon XI serait menacé.

May 8 – Bloomberg (Sofia Horta E Costa): “How much pain can China’s leaders stomach? It’s becoming a key question for investors as the government’s clampdown on financial leverage ripples through markets. The tightening campaign has erased at least $453 billion from the value of Chinese stocks and bonds since mid-April, spurred $21 billion of canceled debt sales and compelled the People’s Bank of China to inject $48 billion into jittery money markets. Sales of asset-management products by lenders and trust companies have plunged by more than 30%, while domestic real estate transactions have slowed and metals prices have buckled.”

May 10 – Bloomberg: “China’s government bonds slumped across tenors, pushing the 10-year yield up by the most since February, on bets regulators’ deleveraging campaign still has a long way to go. The yield on 10-year government bonds spiked 7 bps to 3.7%…, while the cost on the five-year note jumped to the highest in more than two years. The selloff accelerated after the Ministry of Finance sold five-year debt at the highest cost since 2014. This suggests financial institutions are betting yields will climb even further, according to Guotai Junan Securities Co. ‘Bonds are plunging at a pace that’s faster than we expected,’ said David Qu, a Shanghai-based markets economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking… ‘Investors have expected the central bank to ease liquidity when strain appears, but they’ve been repeatedly disappointed. So some are being forced to sell their holdings, leading to a sharper slump in the security.’”

May 9 – Bloomberg (Chris Anstey, Isabella Cota, and Ben Bartenstein): “What may be shaping up as China’s most concerted effort yet to bring its credit boom under control is spurring investors to gauge any contagion to broader financial markets, a-la 2015, when Chinese turmoil caused global ructions. Policy makers’ moves to crack down on leverage have already wreaked about $500 billion of financial damage domestically, and… are dragging on industrial metals and iron-ore prices globally. The key metrics to watch now: the yuan’s exchange rate and cross-border capital flows.”

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