« I have rarely seen a consensus so one-sided than is the case with Treasuries at the current moment. While there may be reasons to believe more upward yield pressure lies ahead, the problem is that this has become a universal view.
Everyone is watching and waiting for 3% on the 10-year which means, as per Bob Farrell, « something else is going to happen ».
« T-bond sentiment could scarcely be more negative. Net spec shorts have soared 4 weeks in a row, to 330,206 contracts from 284,465 contracts last week, jumping six-fold since the turn of the year
The last time there was such a huge negative bond bet in early 2017, a short squeeze sparked a 60 bp plunge in the 10-yr note yield back to 2% by Labor Day. »