Les dépêches jeudi 7 février, révision en baisse de la médiocre croissance de la zone euro

  • The Bank of England is meeting. Rate hikes are being delayed by the interminably tedious EU divorce process. Uncertainty around this is delaying corporate investment. There is news that the next parliamentary debate on the divorce may also be delayed. In other words, the debate to delay the divorce, which is delaying investment in the UK, may be delayed.
  • German industrial production data is due amidst hints that the economy is continuing to pick up after the problems that plagued its businesses late last year.
  • The EU Commission will publish economic forecasts. Their accuracy is no better than anyone else’s forecasts. However, these forecasts have a bearing on the polite fiction of the French and Italian fiscal positions. It is important to be able to pretend to be following the fiscal rules, and EU Commission forecasts can help or hurt that. The IMF was being mean about Italy yesterday, but no one cares what the IMF says.
  • UK weekly jobless claims and consumer credit enliven the data calendar.
  • Meanwhile, Kaplan and Clarida of the Fed are speaking. The latter is commenting on the impact of global factors on the neutral US interest rate. Fun times.

La Commission révise en forte baisse les prévisions économiques de la zone euro alors que la normalisation monétaire n’a même pas encore commencé!


[Reuters] Asian shares inch up to four-month highs, NZ$ takes a dive

[AP] Fed Chairman Powell urges plain speaking at Fed

[Reuters] Fed’s Powell repeats that U.S. economy is in ‘a good place’

Les commandes de biens durables aux USA

Durable Goods New Orders, NSA 1993-2018

[WSJ] 2018 Was Fourth-Hottest Year in Modern Records, U.S. Government Scientists Say

[FT] World’s largest carmakers warn of bleak year ahead

[FT] China lures Taiwanese into ‘brainstorming’ talks on island’s future

[Bloomberg] The U.S. Trade Deficit With China Is Set to Balloon Again



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