Les dépêches jeudi28 fevrier, risques militaires

Le sommet de Hanoï s’est conclu sans accord car le numéro un nord-coréen, Kim Jong Un, a réclamé une levée totale dès à présent des sanctions internationales visant son pays du fait de ses activités nucléaires et balistiques, a annoncé jeudi Donald Trump lors de sa conférence de presse.

  • The US Trade Representative declared a delay « until further notice » on raising taxes on US consumers of goods partially made in China. A US-China trade settlement is starting to look a little like the US-EU trade settlement of last year – continual delay and no new taxes. Meanwhile, the success of trade taxes to date was shown by the December US trade deficit hitting a record high.
  • US fourth quarter GDP data is due. This is expected to be somewhere around 2% to 2.25% (annualized), which would be a little above the trend rate of growth for the US. Markets will look at consumer strength and the inflation measures in the detail.
  • France also offers fourth quarter GDP. This was a quarter when the « gilet jaune » protests were a negative for growth (they are now a positive, in that the protests produced fiscal stimulus in France, and indirectly let Italy get away with stimulus too). Assorted inflation measures come out of the Eurozone today.
  • In the interminably tedious EU-UK divorce, various votes took place in the UK House of Commons. The prospect of a deal being done remains intact although 29 March looks an increasingly unlikely deadline.

[Reuters] Asian stocks shaky as Sino-U.S. trade optimism retreats

[Reuters] Consumers, weak exports seen curbing U.S. fourth-quarter growth

[AP] Farm loan delinquencies highest in 9 years as prices slump

[AP] Survey: China factory activity sinks to 3-year low

[Bloomberg] Australian Home Lending Now Weakest Since the Mid-1980s

[Reuters] World powers call for calm as India and Pakistan trade fire in Kashmir

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