L’injection mercredi de 36 milliards de dollars par la Banque Nationale Chinoise  suscite une question cruciale: quelle sera l’ampleur des besoins en liquidités du système chinois lorsqu’une grande banque se trouvera en difficulté et surtout  lorsque le stress systémique grandissant commencera à provoquer une crise de confiance?

Le CDS souverain chinois a bondi de six points de base cette semaine à 59 points de base, c’est son plus haut niveau depuis janvier. Les marchés s’inquiètent.

Les taux des pension à un jour et ceux des prêts interbancaires ont augmenté, de même que les rendements des obligations de sociétés chinoises.

Selon Bloomberg, l’émission de certificats de dépôt négociables a fortement ralenti cette semaine.

La finance chinoise se resserre, un développement inquiétant pour une bulle fragile.

L’incroyable croissance du système bancaire chinois commence à poser problème. Il est passé de 7 à 8 trillions en 2008 à 40 trillions !

Baoshang, avec ses actifs de 80 milliards de dollars seulement, fait partie d’un très grand groupe de «petites banques».

Avec la plupart des «petites» institutions bancaires chinoises, Baoshang a sollicité  les marchés monétaires pour la plupart de ses besoins de financement . Elle a émis des certificats de dépôt institutionnels négociables et emprunté de manière agressive sur le marché du crédit interbancaire. Tout cela est fragile.

Beijing a décidé d’imposer des pertes à certains créanciers du Baoshang. Alors que les déposants de détail doivent recevoir 100% de leurs fonds, les créanciers corporatifs et financiers sont confrontés à des problèmes « haircuts »,   difficiles.

L’imposition de haircuts est peut être une erreur.

May 28 – Bloomberg: “Is it the start of a new era for China’s $42 trillion financial industry, or a one-time shock that will be quickly forgotten? Five days after the first government seizure of a Chinese bank in 20 years, investors are still grasping for answers. The takeover of Baoshang Bank Co. — announced with scant explanation on Friday night — left China watchers guessing at whether it marks an end to the implicit backstop for banks that has served as a linchpin of the country’s financial stability for decades. Regulators have said they’ll guarantee Baoshang’s smaller depositors, and while they’ve warned some creditors of potential losses, they haven’t said what the final payouts could be or given public guidance on whether the takeover will be a blueprint for other lenders. Complicating matters is the fact that Baoshang has been linked to a conglomerate under investigation by Chinese authorities.”

May 28 – Bloomberg : “Pressure is building in a corner of Chinese lenders’ offshore debt after the nation’s first government seizure of a bank in about two decades. Loss-absorbing bonds, known at Additional Tier 1 instruments or AT1s, plunged across several small lenders on Tuesday after a sell-off on Monday. Huishang Bank Corp.’s 5.5% AT1s sank by a record 3 cents on the dollar Tuesday, while Bank of Jinzhou Co.’s 5.5% note fell most since July and China Zheshang Bank Co.’s 5.45% bond had the steepest drop in a year.”

May 29 – Reuters : “Chinese regulators have issued instructions for the repayment of debts owed by China’s beleaguered Baoshang Bank that could see larger debts facing haircuts of as much as 30%, two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. According to oral instructions detailed by the sources, regulators will guarantee the principal but not the interest on interbank debts between 50 million yuan and 100 million yuan. Debts of more than 5 billion yuan ($723.47 million) will have no less than 70% of their principal guaranteed, the sources said. For debts between 100 million and 2 billion yuan, regulators will guarantee no less than 90% of principal, and for debts of 2 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan, no less than 80% of principal will be guaranteed.”

May 31 – Bloomberg: “Holders of bankers’ acceptances worth more than 50m yuan ($7.2m) issued by Baoshang Bank will be repaid at least 80% of the principal, said people familiar with the matter. Investors were told on Friday that while they will be repaid 80% initially, they may still have recourse to the rest of the repayment as regulators progress in resolving Baoshang’s finances…”