Les dépêches mardi 14 Janvier

[Reuters] Global debt shattering records: IIF

LONDON (Reuters) – Global debt is expected to climb to a new all-time high of more than $257 trillion in the coming months, the Institute of International Finance estimated on Monday, adding there was no sign of it retreating either.

The amount works out at around $32,500 for each of the 7.7 billion people on planet and more than 3.2 times the world’s annual economic output, but the staggering numbers don’t stop there.

Total debt across the household, government, financial and non-financial corporate sectors surged by some $9 trillion in the first three quarters of 2019 alone.

In mature markets total debt now tops $180 trillion or 383% of these countries’ combined GDP, while in emerging markets it is double what it was in 2010 at $72 trillion, driven mainly by a $20 trillion surge in corporate debt.

“Spurred by low interest rates and loose financial conditions, we estimate that total global debt will exceed $257 trillion in Q1 2020,” the IIF said, adding non-financial sector debt was now approaching $200 trillion.

Global government debt alone is set to break above $70 trillion.

China’s debt is fast approaching 310% of its GDP — one of the highest in emerging markets – and following a marked slowdown in 2017/18 when Beijing made a big push for deleveraging, there has been a pick-up again in corporate debt.

China’s government debt also grew at its fastest annual pace last year since 2009, the IIF said, and household debt and general government debt are now at all-time highs of 55% of GDP.

All parts are the world are loading up however. Household debt-to-GDP have reached a record high in Belgium, Finland, France, Lebanon, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland.

Non-financial corporate debt to GDP topped in Canada, France, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland and the United States. Government debt-to-GDP has also hit an all-time high in Australia and the United States.

The IIF’s data is based on Bank for International Settlements and International Monetary Fund figures as well as its own.

Another potentially risky trend is that the amount of emerging market ‘hard currency’ debt – debt sold in a major currency like the dollar that can become hard to pay back if a crisis hits a local currency’s value – reached $8.3 trillion in Q3 2019, $4 trillion higher than a decade ago.

Dollar debt accounts for over 85% of this increase.

(GRAPHIC – Global debt shattering records: here)

Reuters Graphic

[Reuters] Asian stocks rally to record high ahead of trade deal; yen slips

[Reuters] Yuan soars, stocks scale heights as markets cheer imminent Sino-U.S. deal signing

[Reuters] Oil prices rise ahead of trade deal, likely stock draw

[CNBC] Here’s what’s in the phase one China trade deal Trump is signing this week

[Reuters] China December trade beats forecasts: exports up 7.6%, imports up 16.3%

[Bloomberg] South Korea’s Moon Vows ‘Endless’ Measures to Cap Property Prices

[Bloomberg] How World’s Fastest-Growing Economy Plunged Into Stagflation

[Reuters] Wall Street hits record, boosted by trade and earnings optimism

[Reuters] Global debt shattering records: IIF

[Reuters] Fed’s Rosengren warns of inflation risks to central bank’s ‘almost ideal’ economic outlook

[AP] US budget deficit running 11.8% higher this year

[Reuters] U.S. government posts $13.3 billion deficit in December

[CNBC] US budget deficit topped $1 trillion in 2019 for the first time in seven years

[Reuters] Fed on hold, but will financial risks matter?

[Reuters] U.S. Treasury removes designation of China as currency manipulator

[Bloomberg] Global Debt-to-GDP Ratio Hit an All-Time High Last Year

[Bloomberg] Fed’s Mission to Control Benchmark Rate May Spur Another Tweak

[WSJ] China’s Auto Market Stumbles After 30-Year Boom

Répondre

Entrez vos coordonnées ci-dessous ou cliquez sur une icône pour vous connecter:

Logo WordPress.com

Vous commentez à l'aide de votre compte WordPress.com. Déconnexion /  Changer )

Photo Google

Vous commentez à l'aide de votre compte Google. Déconnexion /  Changer )

Image Twitter

Vous commentez à l'aide de votre compte Twitter. Déconnexion /  Changer )

Photo Facebook

Vous commentez à l'aide de votre compte Facebook. Déconnexion /  Changer )

Connexion à %s