Bourse, un trou d’air prévu et prévisible, seul manquait la date exacte. Purge sur les technologiques.

La bourse était fragile, malsaine avec beaucoup d’écume spéculative , une fenêtre de vulnérabilité s’était ouverte.

JP Hussman l’avait discernée et fort bien expliquée, juste la veille du jour ou on a dévissé.

Voici la conclusion de sa dernière note. Il explique comme à son accoutumée l’importance des valorisations pour l’investissement sérieux à long terme et consacre une longue étiude « aux internals ».

Les internals c’est ce qui se passe sous la surface du marché, derrière les apparences . L’examen de ce qui se passe en profondeur dans le marché permet de mesurer sa force ou sa faiblesse.

Les internals permettent de mesurer les divergences, l’absence d’unanimité au sein du marché, l’affaiblissement de l’appétit spéculatif, et donc sa vulnérabilité à un trou d’air.

Ici Hussman avait très bien vu et ce n’est pas un hasard si il a sorti cette note juste avant le trou .

Lisez cette remarquable analyse des divergences.

Traduction de l’essentiel.

À l’heure actuelle, l’un des aspects frappants du comportement du marché est le manque de confirmation qui a accompagné les récents sommets du marché.

Alors que le S&P 500 et le Nasdaq Composite ont atteint des sommets records, ni le large NYSE Composite, ni les indices à petite capitalisation Russell 2000, Dow Industrials, Dow Utilities ou Value Line n’ont dépassé leurs sommets de février.

De même, l’action quotidienne du marché présente de plus en plus de divergences, avec plus d’actions en baisse que d’actions en progression, même les jours où le S&P 500 monte, avec une volatilité implicite croissante des options sur indices boursiers, même en cas de progression du marché.

De même, près de la moitié de toutes les actions américaines restent inférieures à leurs moyennes mobiles respectives sur 200 jours.

Dans l’ensemble, nous avons un marché hypervalué que nous associons aux pires rendements potentiels sur 10-12 ans de l’histoire des marchés financiers américains, ainsi qu’à un sentiment haussier extrême, à une participation tiède, à l’ampleur et au leadership, ainsi qu’à une volatilité implicite divergente.

Ecoutons-le et surtout gardons tout cela en tête, cela resservira à l’avenir.

Pour ceux qui lisent dans le texte:

« One of the features of our measures of market internals is that they can be unfavorable even when the S&P 500 is hitting new highs, and can become positive even when the market seems quite weak. The critical thing to remember is that we need to look below the surface. That’s why they’re called internals.

Presently, one of the striking aspects of market behavior is the lack of confirmation that has accompanied recent market highs. While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have pushed to record highs, neither the broad NYSE Composite, small-cap Russell 2000, Dow Industrials, Dow Utilities, or Value Line indices have breached their February peaks. Likewise, daily market action has increasingly featured divergences, with more declining stocks than advancing stocks even on days when the S&P 500 moves higher, with increasing implied volatility in stock index options even on market advances. Likewise, nearly half of all U.S. stocks remain below their respective 200-day moving averages.

In recent weeks, we’ve also begun to observe various syndromes of conditions that we monitor in daily data, which have historically been vulnerable to abrupt “air pockets” or sustained declines. The chart below, for example, shows periods that join overbullish sentiment with even mildly divergent behavior in implied volatility and market participation. Specifically, the red bars identify instances when advisory bears were below 27%, the CBOE put/call ratio was below 0.58, at least 3 days in the past 10 combined an advance in the S&P 500 with an increase in the VIX, and fewer than 68% of individual stocks were above their own respective 200-day averages. Notably, every steep correction since January 2018 has been preceded by these conditions, not to mention the precise market top in March 2000.

Another interesting combination features the S&P 500 within 0.5% of a 5-year high, a 14-day change in excess of 1%, with fewer than 3% of NYSE issues at new 52-week highs and fewer than 60% of individual stocks above their own 200-day averages. Again, while these conditions are quite simple, the combination of market highs and tepid internals is often a warning sign.

An even less frequent variant that we presently observe in daily data is the combination of S&P 500 highs and narrow participation, adding extremely lopsided sentiment. The chart below shows points when the S&P 500 was within 0.5% of a 5-year high, advisory bears were below 27%, the CBOE put/call ratio was below 0.58, fewer than 3% of NYSE stocks were at 52-week highs, and fewer than 60% of individual stocks were above their own 200-day averages. The instances here are quite limited and rather precise, occurring within days of the March 2000 peak, the October 2007 peak, the September 2018 pre-correction peak, and today.

None of these are forecasts, but they illustrate the confluence of negative factors and syndromes that we are presently observing. It should also be clear that none of this is new. They are just variants of risk factors that I’ve noted in real-time across decades of market cycles.

Overall, we have a hypervalued market that we associate with the worst prospective 10-12 year market returns in the history of the U.S. financial markets, along with extreme bullish sentiment, tepid participation, breadth, and leadership, as well as divergent implied volatility. »

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Une réflexion sur “Bourse, un trou d’air prévu et prévisible, seul manquait la date exacte. Purge sur les technologiques.

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