Voici ce que pense Rosenberg

Voici ce que pense Rosenberg qui, je vous le rappelle est l’un des meilleurs et n’a pas de conflit d’intérêt et ne fait pas de marketing.

Il est clairement recessionniste, croit a la baisse de l’inflation assez rapide grâce à la hausse du dollar et a son effet retard , la chute du petrole et les importations, puis la formation d’un excess gap offre-demande

Il est pour les Treasureries .

MORNING MACRO/MARKET MUSINGS
HIGHLIGHTS
• Risk assets love the dollar peaking-out and real rates in decline
• The speculators have turned net bullish on Nasdaq stocks but more bearish
on bonds
• Less to earnings season than meets the eye
• The Fed willing to risk elongated recession to combat inflation…
• … as it chases lagging indicators and ignores market signals
• The narrative of no Fed pivoting keeps the bond market on tenterhooks and
further inverts the yield curve
• Bloomberg analysis shows inflation-mentions rolling over while recessionmentions hit the highest level since March 2020
• Base metal prices sagged more than 1% yesterday and are in a deep
correction phase
• German economic data are taking a turn for the worse
• Emerging Markets are seeing capital flight and several countries have been
forced to deplete their FX reserves
• UMich expected business conditions 12 months out are down to the lowest
level since February 2009…
• … as for inflation, a record 18% of households believe that deflation is the
primary risk for the next 5 years!
• Which alarm bell goes off at the market lows? Try a +25% breakout in the
RSI for banks and asset managers

SUR LES EARNINGS

With stocks rallying yesterday, many pundits were quick to point to the “better than expected
earnings” as a key reason for support behind the green on the screen. To be sure, with 22 S&P
500 companies reporting on the day, 80% did beat earnings expectations (while only 60% did
so on the revenue side… but we digress), with names such as Moderna and PayPal helping
push markets higher. That said, there is less to this story that we would point out.
First, 74% of companies to date have reported EPS that are higher than analyst forecasts which
are lower than the 77% 5-year average. When it comes to sales, only 60% have done so
compared to the 5-year average of 70%. Second, the message from the bond market — often a
better leading indicator than the stock market — continues to be ignored, with the 10-year yield
falling 4 basis points and the 30-year down 6 basis points on the day, while the 2s/10s curve
slipped to a fresh 22-year low (at -37 basis points).
Finally, we received more news on the precarious state of the U.S. consumer, this time from
Yum Brands, with the CEO stating on the conference call: “If you look at the U.S., I think what’s
happened over the last quarter is that the low-income consumer pulling back has become more
pronounced” and that he’s “never seen a more complex environment than what we’re dealing
with right now.” It’s hard to reconcile the risk-on tone in equities with “a complex environment”
and what the bond market is flashing

SUR L »ENVIRONNEMENT

All in, the global stock market has rebounded +11% off the recent lows. That’s the cuphalf-full story. The cup-half-empty story is that the world index is still down 15% for the
year-to-date.
Bond yields are drifting up again — by around 2 basis points through Europe and renewed big
increases in Australia (+7 basis points to 3.14%) and New Zealand (+9.5 basis points to 3.38%),
where the volatility has been acute. The yield on the 10-year T-note is up +2 basis points to
2.73%, scared off by all the hawkish Fed chatter — the net speculative positions on the CBOT
show that hedge funds have increased their bearish bets on the 10-year note to 148,302
contracts from 86,502 contracts a week ago and 66,062 contracts two weeks ago (and highest
net short position since late June). Interestingly, the 10-year JGB isn’t scared by anything and
has welcomed the recent pop in the yen — the yield is lower by 1.3 basis points, to 0.169%, as
the bond speculators have stopped testing the BoJ’s resolve to defend the 0.25% ceiling.
The DXY dollar index is down 30 pips, to 106.2, after this most recent bounce off the 50-day
trendline. Brent saw a 0.4% gain to $97.21 per barrel, and gold is behaving better, with a +0.8%
gain to $1,779 per ounce. The New Zealand kiwi has bounced +0.7% to 63.08 cents (U.S.) on
the back of some decent jobs data (meanwhile in the U.S., despite the narrative of explosive job
openings, Walmart, the largest retailer and largest private-sector employer, is now cutting
hundreds of high-level positions). The Australian dollar has advanced +0.4% to 69.72 cents
(U.S.) after the release of a blockbuster trade surplus report for June (a record $17.670 billion
from $15.016 billion in May — consensus was looking for a narrowing to $14 billion!).
Meanwhile, the data flow overnight in Europe was quite weak. German factory orders declined
0.4% in June, no recovery at all after May’s 0.2% drubbing — and the YoY trend is firmly in
negative terrain at -9%. The Eurozone construction PMI contracted to 45.7 in July from an
already-soft 47.0 reading in June; the U.K. comparable is down to 48.9 from 52.6.
Interestingly, some Bloomberg analysis shows that inflation “mentions” have rolled over from the
peaks and what has taken over are “mentions” of recession — which have now risen to a level
we last saw in March 2020. The difference is that monetary and fiscal policy were moving into
major stimulus mode back then, and the yield curve was steep and steepening — not exactly
today’s environment.

SUR LA SITUATION DES MENAGES AMERICAINS

THIS — FRESH IN FROM THE NEW YORK FED!
See below from the NY Fed’s quarterly report on household debt. The information begs two
questions: If households are stuffed with so much “excess savings,” why are they borrowing like
there’s no tomorrow? Especially with the cost of credit surging. And what does this really say
about the state of consumer balance sheets? Can’t be as solid as the economics consensus
claims them to be. Read on:
Total Household Debt Surpasses $16 trillion in Q2 2022; Mortgage,
Auto Loan, and Credit Card Balances Increase
“Total non-housing balances see largest nominal increase since 2016
“NEW YORK — The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for
Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt
and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the
second quarter of 2022, increasing by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion.
Balances now stand $2 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the
COVID-19 pandemic. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s
nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.
“Mortgage balances rose by $207 billion in the second quarter of 2022 and
stood at $11.39 trillion at the end of June. Credit card balances also
increased by $46 billion. Although seasonal patterns typically include
an increase in the second quarter, the 13% cumulative increase in
credit card balances since Q2 2021 represents the largest in more
than 20 years. Auto loan balances increased by a solid $33 billion in the
second quarter, while student loan balances were roughly unchanged from
the first quarter and stand at $1.59 trillion. Other balances — which
includes retail cards and other consumer loans — increased by a robust
$25 billion. In total, non-housing balances grew by $103 billion, the
largest increase seen since 2016

Publicité

Votre commentaire

Entrez vos coordonnées ci-dessous ou cliquez sur une icône pour vous connecter:

Logo WordPress.com

Vous commentez à l’aide de votre compte WordPress.com. Déconnexion /  Changer )

Image Twitter

Vous commentez à l’aide de votre compte Twitter. Déconnexion /  Changer )

Photo Facebook

Vous commentez à l’aide de votre compte Facebook. Déconnexion /  Changer )

Connexion à %s