Une opinion autorisée, cela va mal se terminer

Stanley Druckenmiller est une légende, en plus c’est quelqu’un de bien, allez voir sur WIKIPEDIA

Stanley Druckenmiller doesn’t think the Federal Reserve’s experiment of keeping interest rates near 0% to spur economic growth will end well.

SD pense  que l’expérience des taux zero va mal se terminer
Speaking at The New York Times’ DealBook Conference on Tuesday, Druckenmiller said « all you do » when keeping interest rates at 0% for this long is « pulling demand forward today. » « This is not some permanent boost you get — you’re borrowing from the future, » he said.

Ce n’est qu’un stimulant temporaire qui emprunte sur le futur
Druckenmiller also said he thought there had been « a misallocation of resources » because the zero-interest-rate policy had gone on so long and, he said, « so unnecessarily. »

Cela favorise la mauvaise allocation des ressources
« The chickens will come home to roost, » he added.

On va le payer plus tard
The basic idea supporting rates at 0% is that the economy isn’t as strong as it needs to be (or should be), and only by keeping interest rates super low will the Fed be able to give the economy the space and time it needs to repair itself.
But in Druckenmiller’s view, this policy has simply created bad behavior. And worse, he thinks, it has mortgaged the economy’s future potential.

On a hypothéqué le futur, favorisé des comportements nuisibles, et détérioré le potentiel de l’économie
Druckenmiller told The Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin, « I love the title of your conference, » referring to this year’s DealBook event, titled « Playing for the Long Term, » « because whether it’s government, business, the Fed, or money managers, everybody is managing for the short term now. »And in Druckenmiller’s view, this is an outgrowth of the Fed’s policy.

Tout le monde ne travaille plus que pour le court terme et c’est de la faute de la Fed
Druckenmiller said he thought the Fed did a « terrific » job keeping the economy afloat back in 2008-2009 at the height of the financial crisis.But Druckenmiller added that somewhere between 10.1% and 5.1% unemployment, with economic growth looking up and consumer spending bouncing back, you would’ve thought the Fed would get away from its emergency policy. But it hasn’t.

La Fed a bien travaillé lors de la crise économique de 2008/2009, mais elle a eu tort de ne pas s’arreter là.
And so Druckenmiller seems to be adopting the view that the Fed is sending signals about an economy that is simply not strong enough to handle anything but 0% rates despite many indications of an economy that is more than capable of handling normalized interest rates.

Elle envoie des mauvais signaux en faisant croire que l’économie n’est pas capable de se passer des taux zero;
All in all, though, Druckenmiller simply thinks the Fed is making a mistake.

La Fed commet une erreur
As an example, Druckenmiller recalled that in 2003 the economy was growing at a rate between 7% and 9% and the Fed had rates at 1.5%.
Druckenmiller said he knew at the time that the Fed was making a mistake, but he didn’t know how it would play out (he said his guess would have been runaway inflation, and he acknowledged that this would have been dead wrong). A few years later, the housing bubble started to blow up, and then it became clear to Druckenmiller what the Fed’s errors had created.
He feels the same way today: The Fed is making a mistake, but Druckenmiller doesn’t know where or how it will go wrong. He just knows it will.

comme elle en a commis  en 2003 avec des taux de 1,5% alors que la croissance était forte. SD croyait que l’inflation allait venir, il s’est trompé, elle n’est venue que sous forme de bulle du logement

2 réflexions sur “Une opinion autorisée, cela va mal se terminer

  1. Cet homme me paraît particulierement perspicace en ce sens qu’il dit que :
    1- cela va mal finir ( sur ce point je reconnais qu’il n’est pas le seul à le prédire toutefois ) mais surtout, surtout :
    2- il admet ne pas savoir de quelle manière cela va mal finir.
    Quelle honnêteté intellectuelle ! Chapeau bas monsieur D !

    J’aime

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