Since mid 2009 the DAX has remained inside of rising channel (A). The top of this channel was hit in April of 2015. Since hitting rising channel resistance, the DAX has started creating a series of lower highs inside of falling channel (B). So far the idea of “Sell In May” last year, has been a good strategy, in this key index.
Channel (A) is created by weekly closing prices. Last week the DAX closed just above rising channel (A) support. If the DAX breaks below rising support (A), this leader, would be breaking a trend that has been in place for years.
Below looks at the NDX 100 index over the same time period as the DAX above and how much patterns look the same. Remember this, the NDX 100 has been an upside leader (Stronger than the S&P since 2003) and it is testing 6-year support as the DAX is doing the same.