OCDE: Il y a déconnection entre les marchés financiers et les fondamentales

Pour les professionnels et les étudiants 

Global GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016, boosted by fiscal initiatives in the major economies. The forecast is broadly unchanged since November 2016. Confidence has improved, but consumption, investment, trade and productivity are far from strong, with growth slow by past norms and higher inequality.

Disconnect between financial markets and fundamentals, potential market volatility, financial vulnerabilities and policy uncertainties could, however, derail the modest recovery.

The positive assessment reflected in market valuations appears disconnected from real economy prospects. The interest-rate cycle turned in mid-2016 and rising divergence in interest rates between major economies heightens risks of exchange rate volatility. Vulnerabilities remain in some advanced economies from rapid house price increases. Risks to emerging market economies are high, including from higher corporate debt, rising non-performing loans and vulnerability to external shocks. OECD Interim Economic Outlook real GDP growth projectionsGlobal GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016, boosted by fiscal initiatives in the major economies. The forecast is broadly unchanged since November 2016. Confidence has improved, but consumption, investment, trade and productivity are far from strong, with growth slow by past norms and higher inequality. Disconnect between financial markets and fundamentals, potential market volatility, financial vulnerabilities and policy uncertainties could, however, derail the modest recovery. The positive assessment reflected in market valuations appears disconnected from real economy prospects. The interest-rate cycle turned in mid-2016 and rising divergence in interest rates between major economies heightens risks of exchange rate volatility. Vulnerabilities remain in some advanced economies from rapid house price increases. Risks to emerging market economies are high, including from higher corporate debt, rising non-performing loans and vulnerability to external shocks. OECD Interim Economic Outlook real GDP growth projections

La Suite:

http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/Will-risks-derail-the-modest-recovery-OECD-Interim-Economic-Outlook-March-2017.pdf

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