Les dépêches mercredi soir, on parle beaucoup de la Fed

Le VP de la FED Fischer croit au retour de l’inflation. Le passage à vide actuel ne va pas durer. Avec le chomage qui baisse, les salaires vont finir par monter. IL faut quelquefois attendre longtems, mais cela finit par arriver. Ces sont des forces fondamentales. Le rythme de hausse des taux graduel lui convient. 

The current soft patch of inflation will not last, the No.2 official on the U.S. central bank said Wednesday.

“I still believe we will have higher inflation,” Fischer said, in an interview on Bloomberg TV.

With unemployment declining, wages will go up “at some stage,” Fischer said.

“You have to wait a long time, usually longer than you expected to wait for something to happen, but then, if it is a very basic force… it will show up,” Fischer said.

Fischer’s remarks dovetail with the views of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who said she expects inflation to gradually move higher.

 

Fischer said he was satisfied with the gradual pace of rate hikes the Fed has engineered since late 2015.

The pace of rate hikes is “OK, it is not terrific,” Fischer said. He added he would like to see interest rates rise above the rate of inflation, which the central bank expects to happen in the middle of next year, he said.

At the moment, the Fed’s short-term interest rate is in a range between 1% and 1.25%. Inflation, as measured by the core personal consumption expenditure index, is running at a 1.3% annual rate.

Fischer has announced that he will retire next week. Yellen’s term expires early next year. The Fed vice chairman declined to discuss who should be the next leaders of the central bank.

“This is a choice clearly of the president and the administration. It is really not appropriate for me to get into deciding who will be the next chairman,” he said.

Fischer est  contre une politique fondée sur des règles du type Taylor 

Fischer warned the next Fed chairman not to adopt a strict rules-based monetary policy.

While the idea of a rule is attractive in theory, “in practice, you would find yourself having to define all the time when it is appropriate to diverge from the rule,” he said.

Rules do not anticipate strange things that can happen to an economy, such as three hurricanes in a row, he said.

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