Les dépêches lundi matin 28 mai, la question de l’euro des nains, et puis bien sur l’Italie

Les promoteurs de l’euro, ceux qui l’ont porté sur les fonds baptismaux étaient des nuls.
Non seulement ils ont bati une monnaie qui ne pouvait resister aux divergences internes à la Construction, mais en plus ils ont crée une monnaie avorton, un nain géopolitique ce qui permet maintenant à Trump et aux USA d’imposer leur loi, de nous faire chanter,  de nous asphyxier. Nous sommes castrés. Meme si c’est maintenant un plaisir (du genre), cela fait mal.  
Honte à ces personnes responsables  de nos maux, honte à ceux là que l’establishment continue pourtant de glorifier alors qu’ils ne méritent que le mépris. 
On lira ci dessous un bon papier de Munchau du FT. 
je ne suis pas d’accord avec les conclusions que Munchau tire de son analyse, mais le diagnostic est impeccable. 
L’euro doit etre totalement réformé pour devenir un vrai concurrent géopolitique du dollar ou il doit, selon nous, cesser d’exister car dans sa forme actuelle, il nous dessert. Il asseoit notre servitude internationale et notre régression en terme de niveau de vie. L’euro tel qu’il est nous impose , pour durer, l’austérité perpétuelle, l’euro tel qu’il est perpétue notre dépendance et notre alignement  à l’égard des Etats-Unis. 
Avez vous entendu parler de ce débat? Nous non, absolument pas, pas un mot! C’est vrai vous ne méritez pas que l’on aborde ces questions publiquement.  La démocratie s ‘arrête aux portes du temple monétaire. 
Vivement que la Deutsche Bank tangue et que l’on se décide enfin à oser regarder les vrais problèmes! L’un des problèmes, mais ce n’est pas le seul, c’est la nanitude politique de l’Allemagne et l’autre c’est l’incapacité des élites allemandes à voir plus loin que le bout de leur nez économique et à comprendre qu’une monnaie c’est une arme geopolitique, un complément obligatoire de la souveraineté. 

Bloomberg Politics <noreply@mail.bloombergbusiness.com>

Le combat des populistes contre l’establishment ; Le Président Italien veut maintenir l’Italie sous tutelle, cette fois … du FMI!

Italy’s two populist leaders forged a coalition from very different policy platforms.

They found a prime minister that both could accept.

Then President Sergio Mattarella vetoed their finance minister and their bid for power foundered, unleashing chaos and rage in equal measure in Rome.

Mattarella may now ask a former IMF official to form a technocratic government.

Five Star and the League meanwhile are talking about impeaching the head of state.

“We worked for weeks, day and night, to ensure the birth of a government that defends the interests of Italian citizens,” League Leader Matteo Salvini wrote on Facebook. “But someone (under pressure from whom?) said no to us.”

Mattarella signaled his veto was motivated by concerns about the would-be finance minister Paolo Savona’s opposition to the euro, which raised questions about the begrudging acceptance of the single currency in the coalition deal.

It’s a massive gamble though. The populists can vote down a technocrat and would head into a repeat election arguing they’re defending the will of the people against the establishment.

– Ben Sills

Premier-nominee Giuseppe Conte meets with President Mattarella.

 

[Reuters] Oil sinks while stocks gain on North Korea, euro shaken by Italy

[BloombergQ] Italy’s Failure to Form Government Deepens Political Chaos

Nouvelle chute des banques Italiennes

[Reuters] Italy’s president calls in former IMF official amid political turmoil

[BBC] Italy crisis: Call to impeach president after candidate vetoed

[BloombergQ] Bid to Block Trump’s Deal on ZTE Would Have Support, Rubio Says

[Reuters] Japan’s PM defends its automakers against U.S. import probe

[BloombergQ] Spain’s Divided Opposition Struggles With Plan to Oust Rajoy

[FT] When will the US Fed stop tightening?


The euro must be made more robust to rival the dollar

Many years ago, I used to attend an annual seminar in pleasant surroundings, in which the participants discussed the politics and economics of two European countries. There were usually two groups. One would talk about foreign policy — mostly transatlantic relations. The other discussed economics and especially the euro. At the end the two listened to each others’ conclusions with polite boredom. The EU would today be in a better place if the foreign policy folk inside and outside that room had made the euro their own project.

The dollar, by contrast, has been an integral part of US foreign policy for many years. Its role as the global anchor currency allows the US to cut off an entire country from access to international commerce and finance, as in the case of Iran. Or a group of individuals as in the case of Russia.
The euro was not designed as a geopolitical instrument.
I recall the debate in Germany in the 1990s. The Bundesbank deliberately rejected the idea of a strong international role for the euro, fearing it might conflict with the objective of price stability.
I also recall the debates among international economists about whether the euro could challenge the dollar as a global reserve currency. The opportunity was there. Serious academic papers were written. The fact that it did not happen was the result of a conscious political choice. That choice is in part responsible for the EU’s difficulty in finding an effective response to Donald Trump today.
The biggest problem with the US president’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal is the extraterritorial effect. European companies that defy the US sanctions would be cut off from US financial and product markets. So would the banks that fund those companies. Multinational companies or banks cannot afford that. Mr Trump can behave in this way because the US is ultimately in control of all dollar-based financial flows, including those that originate outside the US.
The EU cannot impose extraterritorial sanctions on US companies that defy European policy. The euro is not as critical to them as the dollar is to Europeans.
After the euro was introduced in 1999, it quickly became the world’s second most important currency but still lags behind the dollar on most metrics. Its share of foreign exchange reserves was under 20 per cent at the end of 2016, compared with 64 per cent for the dollar, according to the European Central Bank. The gap was of similar magnitude in the categories of international debt and loans. The dollar leads the euro in foreign exchange turnover by a factor of three to one. The only category where the euro has almost caught up is that of a global payment currency. In the past decade the gap narrowed but it has widened again since the financial crisis.
The eurozone ‘safe asset’ is crucial to banking union In response to Mr Trump’s decision to cancel the Iran deal, the European Commission only managed to dig up the old blocking statute — a ban on European companies complying with the sanctions. The problem is that the EU has no financial instruments to protect European companies. How, for example, would you compensate a European bank for no longer being able to transact in dollars?
The failure to develop the euro into a rival to the dollar also makes the EU more vulnerable to trade tariffs. This is mostly due to the trade surplus. This, in turn, is the result of the eurozone decisions as to how to tackle the debt crisis: by forcing crisis countries to run positive current account balances. One consequence of this policy has been a populist backlash of the kind we see in Italy right now. US protectionism is another.
Before the financial crisis the eurozone ran a small current account surplus. By last year, it reached 3.5 per cent of economic output. The larger the surpluses became, the more dependent the eurozone had become on the rest of the world. Instead of hyperventilating about Mr Trump, Europeans might want to reflect on what got them into this mess. The EU would be more resilient today if it had not handled the eurozone crisis the way it did, and if its founders had made the euro more robust from the outset.
Technically, it would still be possible for the EU to fix the problem, but that would require a degree of political union that goes far beyond even what Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has proposed.
It requires at its core a mutualised debt instrument, a euro bond, as a financial instrument to underpin a large sovereign debt market. It would also require a broader mandate for the European Central Bank. I am, of course, aware that there is no political support for this in northern Europe. But just wait until Mr Trump imposes tariffs on BMW, Mercedes and other European companies. Events are starting to intrude.
munchau@eurointelligence.com
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