Les banques européennes sont en reprise boursière, un shadow budget en Allemagne?

Les banques européennes sont en reprise boursière

L’indice Euro Stoxx Banks  a connu ses cinq meilleurs jours depuis avril 2017.

Les actions de Deutsche Bank ont ​​progressé d’environ 25% depuis le creux du mois d’août.

Qu’y a-t-il derrière le rebond?

Le  point bas date du 15 août. Un jour plus tard, un rapport de Der Spiegel sur l’Allemagne envisageait  une forme de relance budgétaire. Tiens, tiens!

Relancer de façon keynesienne,  c’est  quelque chose que les Allemands  sont extrêmement réticents à faire. Néanmoins, les rumeurs deviennent  de plus en plus insistantes .

Le ministre des Finances Olaf Scholz, a déclaré  que même si l’équilibre budgétaire serait maintenu en 2020, il restera néanmoins « expansionniste ».

Dans le même temps, l’agence Reuters a annoncé que l’Allemagne envisageait un « budget shadow  » pour permettre au pays de s’endetter davantage tout en respectant techniquement les lois en matière de dépenses. Une sorte de budget fantôme!

Des budgets fantômes expansionnistes qui respectent toujours les règles? Tout cela a l’air très allemand ou plutot très Merkelien. Mais sur les marchés, on en parle et cela suffit.

Les traders sont positionnés tous dans le même sens donc à la moindre rumeur, ils se rachètent .

Et puis on dit qu’à la BCE on s’interroge sur les moyens de faire des cadeaux aux banques ou en tous cas de les pénaliser moins.

Et puis la hausse des taux sur le Bnd semble aller dans le sens des rumeurs

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En attendant que tout cela se produise, la presse et les économistes, surtout étrangers  essaient de convaincre les décideurs politiques de renoncer à leur obsession pour les budgets équilibrés.

En Prime:

BERLIN, Sept 9 (Reuters) – Germany is considering setting up independent public agencies that could take on new debt to invest in the country’s flagging economy, without falling foul of strict national spending rules, three people familiar with talks about the plan told Reuters.

The creation of new investment agencies would let Germany take advantage of historically low borrowing costs to spend more on infrastructure and climate protection, over and above debt limits enshrined in the constitution, the sources said.

Germany’s debt brake allows a federal budget deficit of up to 0.35% of gross domestic product (GDP). That’s equivalent to about 12 billion euros ($13.3 billion) a year but once factors such as growth rates have been taken into account, Berlin only has the scope to increase new debt by 5 billion next year.

Europe’s largest economy is teetering on the brink of recession and pent-up demand for public investment from towns and cities across the country is estimated at 138 billion euros by state-owned development bank KfW.

Under the « shadow budget » plan being considered by government officials, new debt taken on by the public investment agencies would not be accounted for under the federal budget, said the sources, who declined to be named.

Limits on how much debt they could take on would instead be governed by the rules of the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact, giving Germany room to boost spending without needing a two-thirds majority in parliament to change its own debt rules.

« Norway has its oil, Germany has its credit standing. It’s like a national resource, » one senior official told Reuters, pointing to the fact that German debt is in such demand that yields have turned negative, even for long-term bonds.

« If managed wisely, an independent public investment agency could even make money by taking on new debt, » the official said.

Otto Fricke, chief budget lawmaker of the opposition business-friendly Free Democratic Party, told reporters on Monday it would not back any plans to introduce parallel budgets through independent public agencies.

« This is nothing but an attempt to led voters up the garden path, » Fricke said, adding that he was concerned parliamentary control over budget questions would be weakened.

Spokeswomen for the Finance Ministry and the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy declined to comment.

The Finance Ministry spokeswoman pointed to an earlier statement by a deputy finance minister for parliamentary affairs saying Berlin did not think there was a lack of public funds.

‘ACCOUNTING TRICKS’

Under the European Union’s fiscal rules, countries can run a deficit of up to 1% of economic output as long as their debt-to-GDP ratio is significantly below 60% – something that Germany’s Finance Ministry expects to happen this year.

That would mean Germany could take on new debt worth up to 35 billion euros a year, rather than the 5 billion allowed under its own constitutionally enshrined debt brake.

The move comes at time German borrowing costs are at a historic low, with bond yields in negative territory. That means investors are willing to pay a premium to keep their money with Berlin, rather than getting interest payments.

Philipp Steinberg, head of the economic policy department at the Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, said it could take a while for a coalition to emerge in parliament in favour of changing the national debt rules, so the government should act.

« We should explore all possibilities to finance necessary investments under the debt brake, including setting up independent bodies not accounted for under the debt brake, » he said. « We should be able to resist criticism about using accounting tricks – the task is worth it. »

However, some cautioned that using « accounting tricks » to circumvent strict national rules could harm Germany’s economic credibility and that policymakers should balance the long-term risks with the short-term fiscal gains.

« Germans like their rules and they like to interpret them very narrowly, » said Tom Krebs, professor of macroeconomics and economic policy at the University of Mannheim. « I’d rather focus on changing the fiscal rule in our constitution. »

CLIMATE FOUNDATION

With the current fragmentation of Germany’s political landscape, it would be very difficult to reach the two-third majorities needed in both chambers of parliament to change the national debt brake, analysts say.

It would require an unprecedented « super-grand coalition » of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU bloc and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats with at least two opposition parties such as the pro-spending Greens and the far-left Die Linke joining them.

Separately, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier on Monday floated the idea of creating a non-profit climate foundation into which Berlin could initially inject 5 billion euros.

The foundation would issue interest-free loans for climate protection projects – up to a maximum of 50 billion euros – with the aim of reducing German carbon emissions, he told reporters.

That’s roughly the amount needed to finance the additional climate protection measures the government is considering, and which Berlin aims to present on Sept. 20.

Altmaier said any government borrowing or lending through such a non-profit foundation would not violate the federal government’s self-imposed balanced budget goal – or the more formal debt brake – because the foundation would be private. ($1 = 0.9054 euros)

(Reporting by Michael Nienaber; editing by Paul Carrel and David Clarke)

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Une réflexion sur “Les banques européennes sont en reprise boursière, un shadow budget en Allemagne?

  1. J’ adore ! budgets fantômes pour banques zombies… Fallait rincer les ventes à découvert, c’était l’horreur ! Quels suspenses ! les rapaces vont devoir attendre un petit peu pour se partager les cadavres !

    Quoi-que… quelque chose me dit que nous ne sommes pas au bout de nos surprises, depuis hier, il y a des odeurs de sueurs froides dans le dos et des frissons qui donnent la chair de poule… Mortel le scénario !

    J'aime

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