Les dépêches vendredi soir, dette globale, pas de crise si tout se passe bien !

S&P donne un chiffre de dette globale de 200 trillions chiffre diffèrent de celui fourni par l’IFF. Chacun a sa façon de calculer.

«La hausse prévue de 14% de la dette mondiale par rapport au PIB en 2020 est peu susceptible de provoquer une crise de la dette à court terme, à condition que les économies se redressent, que les vaccins soient largement distribués, que les taux d’intérêt restent très bas et que le comportement d’emprunt se modère», indique le rapport

Le communiqué Reuters :

 Global debt is set to reach $200 trillion, or 265% of the world’s annual economic output, by the end of the year, S&P Global has forecast – although it doesn’t expect a crisis any time soon.

The credit ratings giant said it amounted to a 14-point rise as a percentage of world GDP, having been amplified by both the economic plunge caused by COVID and the extra borrowing that governments, firms and households have had to resort to.

“Global debt-to-GDP has been trending up for many years; the pandemic simply exacerbated the rise,” S&P’s report said.

Yet, despite the big jump and an expected wave of defaults over the coming year, the firm does not expect a major crisis at this stage.

“The projected 14% surge in global debt-to-GDP in 2020 is unlikely to cause a near-term debt crisis, provided economies recover, vaccines are widely distributed, interest rates remain very low, and borrowing behaviour moderates,” the report said.

As long as the world economy gets back on its feet after the pandemic, the global debt-to-GDP ratio should ease back to 256% by 2023, S&P said.

“We expect the debt growth of corporates, governments, and household to ease as they tend to after recessions,” it added.

le poids du Bitcoin

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Si l’inflation etait bien calculée elle serait bien plus élevée

Les taux du 10 ans flirtent avec les 1%, plus haut de 8 mois.

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