Les développements récents indiquent que le front du Donbass est en train de se fissurer. 

The Severodonetsk Cauldron Update—Vladislav Ugolny SitRep, May 8, 2022

1—The ambassador of LNR (Lugansk People’s Republic) to Russia has reported about the withdrawal of a Ukrainian brigade from Lisichansk and the clashes in Belogorovka, Shipilovka, and Privolye. This area is marked with (1) on the map.

2—This information confirms that the Allied forces have crossed the Seversky Donets river. It appears that the river crossing to the west of Serebryanka, which the Ukrainians destroyed, was nothing more than a ruse and cover for the real operation to traverse the waterway.

3—This development significantly worsens the operational situation for the Ukrainian troops in Lisichansk. The ability of the Russian forces to strike the highway between Lisichansk and Artyomovsk and suppress enemy activity along this supply route makes the situation for the Ukrainian troops even worse. For greater control, the Russian army needs to establish a bridgehead on the right (western) bank of Donets in this area, but the Ukrainian side is already in panic.

4—In the south, despite the Allied forces’ liberation of Popasnaya and forward movement in the Bakhmutka area, the Ukrainian army retains a stronghold in Zolotoy (which has added symbolism, as a place where Biletsky’s neo-Nazi National Corps organized the “Last Checkpoint” campaign to protest Poroshenko’s “capitulation” and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops. He said, at the rally in 2019, “This is our last checkpoint, and we will never leave it.”) Notwithstanding Biletsky’s protestations, Zolotoy will be surrounded in the event Toshkovka and Vrubovka are taken. The Zolotoy strongpoint is marked with (2) on the map.

5—The success of the offensive in this area depends on the Ukrainian troops numbers. It is not entirely clear where the units of the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade retreated to [while some reports claimed that the remnants of the brigade headed to Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), Ukrainian sources claim that the 24th Brigade has retreated to nearby fortified positions previously prepared for the purpose]. It is also not clear which unit has withdrawn from Lisichansk and where it is headed.

6—The defence of Severodonetsk no longer has any operational significance for the Ukrainian army. The fact that troops were kept here indicates only the Ukrainian desire to erase the city off the map in the course a protracted battle. However, the Ukrainian Nazis have already provoked a humanitarian catastrophe: The Popasnaya water canal has been damaged and its restoration will take a long period of time.

7—For the Russian forces, these developments have the following significance:

a) The long-awaited reduction of the line of front, with the ability either to transfer reserves to other directions or to increase the density of the troops concentrations in the direction of Seversk and Artyomovsk.

b) An important victory and achievement in the form of complete liberation of the territory of the Lugansk People’s Republic.

c) Any delay by the Ukrainian forces in retreating will increase the chances of their encirclement.

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