« Le dollar est fondamentalement une farce »

VOICI UN ENTRETIEN DE HAUT NIVEAU.

Les locuteurs prennent de la hauteur, ils se placent à l’échelle générationnelle, pas à l’échelle du trading. On est dans l’histoire, pas dans l’actualité de CNBC ou Bloomberg.

Milton Berg, CFA, PDG et stratège en chef des investissements de MB Advisors, apporte des décennies d’expérience en trading et en timing du marché. 

Pour son activité disons quotidienne, il suit plus de 30 000 indicateurs!

Mais ce n’est pas ce qui est intéressant, non; le trading c’est l’arbre qui cache la forêt; et ici ce qui est examiné, de tres haut, c’est la forêt.

Milton Berg a travaillé avec les plus grands noms du monde des fonds spéculatifs, notamment Soros, Druckenmiller et Steinhardt. 

Cette conversation s’inscrit dans un registre analytique qui n’est pas le mien, C’est un registre que j’apprécie également dans la mesure ou grosso modo il parvient aux mêmes conclusions que cmoi et que celles que je développe depuis des décennies.

Ed D’Agostino:


…. So, what do you feel about the US dollar? Because…


Milton Berg:

Oh, well now, of course, it’s a funny thing to say there hasn’t been inflation for the last 30
years… there has been inflation. But the inflation didn’t occur in consumer prices. The inflation
was in asset prices, it was in bonds and it was in stocks. And actually, it was in gold as well. Gold
bought at $250 or so in 2000, excuse me, yeah, roughly 2000 or so. And then the last 20 years,
there was a major boom in gold.


So, there was inflation in everything other than consumer prices. And now the cat is out of the
bag, we have inflation in consumer prices, very hard to get back to where we were, to get
inflation back down.

And so I think we’re in an inflationary period. Inflation is a terrible tax.

It’sa terrible tax on the wealthy, but it’s even a greater tax on working people.


Ed D’Agostino:
Sure.


Milton Berg:


And it’s just a terrible thing. And I suppose… we have governments in control of our money
supply and government in control of our spending. And in the United States Congress, you
know the majority of the Congresspeople or senators are lawyers in the background. They’re
lawyers. Do you know of anyone who’s an economist?


Ed D’Agostino:
No, I don’t.


Milton Berg:


I think one maybe has some good economic background. So, they’re spending money we don’t
have. They don’t understand that in the history of the world, all goods and services have been
scarce. There’s a scarcity of goods and services. It’s the pricing, it’s a cost of interest, and the
cost of goods and services, which give us a message of what we can buy and what we can sell.
And the Federal Reserve and the US government—by spending what they don’t have—has
basically disrupted the message that pricing is supposed to give us.

So, things aren’t going to be so great in the future, but we’re not calling for a depression.


Ed D’Agostino:

Are you calling for a higher level of baseline inflation for longer than people expect, would that
be fair?

Milton Berg:

This is what I think. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. I know people talk about supply
chains and shortages. In the history of the world, all inflation is caused by the money increase
to a greater extent than goods increase, and goods and services increase. And this has been
going on for decades, where the Federal Reserve has been basically… I don’t want to use the
word printing because they don’t really print. They’ve been allowing credit to increase, debt
and credit to increase.


Now, if you get an honest Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell is honest and he wants to get
inflation back down to 2% or lower, it’s going to be very difficult for our economy. It’s going to
be very difficult. Rates are going to have to go high, and it’s probably going to be very, very
deflationary. Very, very deflationary and very, very negative for the economy.


On the other hand, if that happens, the United States can’t pay down their debts because if
rates go up, the United States have been borrowing on the short end, they won’t be able to pay
down the debts except if they raise taxes. And if they raise taxes to the extent they can pay
down the debt, it’s going to again, be very deflationary, very depressionary.

So, the choices at Federal Reserve, they don’t want the
fiat money to be strong, what do they say? Listen, we can’t allow a government to go bankrupt
and can’t allow a government to raise taxes to 60, 70, 80% to cover their debts, and we’re going
to increase money supply.


So, it depends on what the Fed does, but it’s a choice. Either we have strong inflation in the
future if they’re a dishonest Fed, or you have an inflationary period or a deflationary period if
they really want to have sound money in the United States.


Ed D’Agostino:


I think this leads into an asset class that I think confuses a lot of people, and that’s gold. It really
hasn’t performed as well as, I think, most people would expect in an inflationary environment.
Is that really a function of the strength of the dollar up until now—or is there another reason
why you feel gold maybe is lagging a little bit? And what’s your forecast?


Milton Berg:


I believe that gold has acted very, very well. If you look at the history of gold, there’s no
retained assets in gold. There’s no retained earnings. The price of gold is not the price of a
stock. It’s not a price of a stock like Apple. A company like Apple Computer, they manufacture
things, they make money, and they retain their earnings, and they pay earnings to
shareholders. Gold is an asset that should maintain its inflationary value, maintain its value over
the years, over the decades. And gold has done that.


In fact, going back 100 years or so, gold returned more than 3% per annum… 3–4% per annum,
which is above the inflation rate over that period. That’s all gold is supposed to do. Now, gold is
very cyclical, and therefore you have big moves up and big moves down in gold. But the fact
that you have inflation now does not tell you that gold has to move up in price right now

A prime example is, from 1980 to the year 2000, gold collapsed from $850 per ounce to $250
per ounce while the CPI doubled. Again, CPI doubled, gold is cut more than in half. Gold does
not track inflation on a year-to-year basis. But over the long term, gold maintains its value in an
inflationary environment.


That is why people who are smart and want to keep their assets for themselves and for their
children or grandchildren, keep it in gold. Because if it’s in gold, it’s in your safe deposit box. Or
if it’s in your safe, it will not be taxed. You don’t pay interest on the income. It won’t go
bankrupt. But it’s going to maintain its value.


So, if you want to buy your child a Lamborghini, and you want to put $300,000 worth of gold in
a safe deposit box. You tell my six-year-old grandson, “When you’re 36 years old, just take this
gold, you’ll buy a Lamborghini then.”


In other words, it’ll retain its value. You can’t say that with any other currency. And I’m not sure
you can say that with Bitcoin either, because I don’t think Bitcoin is actually a currency. It’s just
my opinion as well. But gold has been a great method of maintaining long-term value. And
again, you don’t pay taxes on it.

Ed D’Agostino:

So, your idea about transferring value and transferring wealth, it’s really interesting. I could see
how the US government in particular would have a real problem with that. But given the status
of the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency, how do you feel about the US dollar
maintaining that reserve status?

Milton Berg:


The US dollar is basically a joke. Is a dollar today in any way representative to a dollar 100 years
ago? A dollar’s worth 2 cents to what it was a 100 years ago. Fiat currencies is one of the great
ways governments use to steal money from the people through inflation.

So, on a very shortterm basis, a dollar is great. But it can’t be used to hold
any value.


So, there should be better alternatives than a dollar. I’m not knocking a dollar in the sense that
it’s very, very functional. It works very, very well on a short-term basis. But saving dollars makes
no sense. And even buying bonds… if you’re not buying it in a retirement account, you have to
pay tax on the interest you’re receiving. That, again, it reduces the value you’re getting. One
benefit of gold is that gold maintains its inflationary value, but you don’t pay tax on its increase.


That’s one of the benefits of owning stocks as well, because the companies, although there’s
double taxation, unfortunately, companies pay tax and you pay tax on income, but you don’t
pay tax on the capital gain until you sell the stock. Of course, you have some senators who are
totally economic illiterates, like Senator Warren, who suggests some taxing unrealized capital
gains. I mean, she said, “Let’s just take two pennies.” It’s not two pennies, believe me. Nobody
out there in the real world owns a stock is paying two pennies. It’s two pennies of every $100
that you own, which is very, very, very, very repressive taxation. And again, there are too many
economic illiterates in government, and you just can’t do that.

Publicité

Une réflexion sur “« Le dollar est fondamentalement une farce »

  1. Je n’ai pas lu jusqu’à la fin quand j’ai vu que l’interlocuteur parle encore d’inflation monétaire et que la hausse des taux aura un effet déflationniste et permettra de lutter contre l’inflation. Il y a plusieurs modèles d’inflation, selon la cause première. Ici, nous sommes en « Cost Push » inflation, du effectivement à une diminution de la quantité de biens disponibles, à cause de tout ce que ces dégénérés ont fait pour casser les chaines, du Covid, à la guerre, en passant par la rupture des chaines d’approvisionnement, etc… quand les biens viennent à manquer, je ne vois pas trop ce qu’une hausse des taux permettrait de faire.

    J’aime

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