29 janvier 2023 Le Fil de tweets de ALF qui prédit la récession dans 4 à 5 mois. In 4-5 months, I expect the US to be in a recession.A thread.1/— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 Predictions without a timeframe are useless and not actionable.Now, it seems most analysts ‘‘expect a recession’’.Ok, but when will it hit and how hard will it be?The answers to these two questions are very important for asset allocation in 2023.2/— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 First of all: shall we agree on what characterizes a recession in the first place?While many refer to 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as the main signal for a recession, the NBER instead looks at consumer spending, the labor market and corporate earnings.3/— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 GDP reports are delayed and often subject to big revisions.The NBER methodology is more robust, and it allows us to assess live whether we are in a recession or not mostly looking at consumers, the labor market and earnings growth.So: let's do that.4/— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 Here are 4 leading macro indicators that can help assess when and how hard a recession could hit.#1: The Global Credit ImpulseWhen Recession? – March/April 2023How Bad? – Bad5/ pic.twitter.com/JE8jTFqdQx— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 The global credit impulse (blue) leads S&P500 earnings growth (orange) by 9 months, and given its rapid decline in 2022 it’s now pointing to negative YoY EPS by March/April 2023Rapid declines in the Global Credit Impulse have preceded YoY EPS contraction in the 10-20% area6/— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 #2: The Conference Board Leading Indicator IndexWhen Recession? – April/May 2023How Bad? – On par with 2001 at least7/ pic.twitter.com/bZQGBqGobK— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 This index incorporates the top 10 statistically significant forward-leading indicators for the US economy.Over the last 50+ years, every time the YoY series of this index prints in negative territory for 2+ consecutive months a recession is guaranteed.8/— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 #3: The Housing MarketWhen Recession? – May 2023How Bad? – Pretty bad, given unemployment rate is supposed to breach 7% by early 20249/ pic.twitter.com/YFeSuZneNw— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 In 2007 Edward Leamer of the University of California stated that the housing market IS the business cycleI believe he is fundamentally rightHousing-related jobs and economic activity represent anything between 12-15% of US GDP and employment alone10/— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 The NAHB housing index (orange, inverted) leads trends in US unemployment rate (blue) by roughly 12 monthsAccording to the Sahm Rule, a recession starts when the 3-month moving average of the US unemployment rate rises by 50+ bps relative to its low during the previous 12m11/— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 The survey goes out to 125 CEOs of relevant companies who tend to have a good grasp of where economic activity is headed.Over the last 40 years, every time the 12m moving average of this index dropped below 15 for 2+ months, a recession always followed.13/— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 Conclusion: several leading macro indicators are pointing to a US recession starting in 4-5 months, and of a magnitude at least on par with 2001.Looking under the hood, the latest GDP report also confirms organic growth is rapidly trending down and heading below zero.14/— Alf (@MacroAlf) January 28, 2023 PublicitéPartager :TwitterFacebookWordPress:J’aime chargement… Articles similaires
Une réflexion sur “Le Fil de tweets de ALF qui prédit la récession dans 4 à 5 mois.”
s’il a raison ?
vu les valorisations actuelles,
on ne va pas voir le temps passer
en 2023 sur les markets