Rappel des dernières dépêches

L’Italie ne respectera pas la régle:
November 8 – Bloomberg (Lorenzo Totaro): “Italy’s ratio of debt to economic output will rise slightly this year and won’t fall below 130% through 2019 as the pace of recovery slows, the European Commission said. The ratio will increase to 132.1% of gross domestic product from 132% in 2016, the Brussels-based EU executive arm said…

LAllemagne est en surchauffe:

November 7 – Reuters (Thomas Escritt): “The German economy is at risk of overheating, according to a leaked advisory council report that follows pressure from the Bundesbank for a swifter end to the European Central Bank’s expansive monetary policy. In their annual report… the five ‘wise men’ who advise the German government on economic policy said the economy, which they expected to expand strongly this year and next, was moving gradually into a ‘boom phase’. ‘There are clear signs that economic capacity is over-utilised,’ read the report…”

Le crédit pourri se propage en Europe:

November 7 – Financial Times (Nicholas Megaw): “Record high prices combined with more risky corporate bond supply is creating ‘increasing uncertainty’ and raising the chances of a sharp turnround in the European high-yield credit market, Fitch… warned. Yields on the most popular benchmark for European junk bonds fell below 2% for the first time ever last week, but Fitch warned that recent market calm and the distorting impact of central bank monetary policy ‘obscure the true risk-return dynamics faced by investors’. The ratings agency said the proportion of newly-issued bonds with the lowest credit ratings – CCC+ or below – has risen to its highest level since 2013, when average yields were more than 5%.”

Le Ponzi rouge, un signe qui ne trompe aps

November 7 – Bloomberg: “Under pressure to trim borrowings, China’s companies have found a way to reduce their lofty debt burdens — even if some of the risk remains. Sales of perpetual notes — long-dated securities that can be listed as equity rather than debt on balance sheets given that in theory they could never mature — have soared to a record this year as Beijing zeros in on leverage and the threat it poses to the financial system. The bonds are so popular that issuance by non-bank firms has jumped to the equivalent of 433 billion yuan ($65bn), more than seven times sales by companies in the U.S. ‘Chinese issuers love perpetual bonds because they are under great pressure to deleverage,’ said Wang Ying, a senior director at Fitch… ‘Sophisticated investors should do their homework and shouldn’t be misled by the numbers in accounting books.’

[Bloomberg] Stocks Extend Drop, Bonds Fall; Dollar Fluctuates: Markets Wrap

[Bloomberg] Oil Set for Best Weekly Run in Year as Saudi Tumult Roils Market

[Reuters] Dueling Republican tax plans advance in Congress

[Bloomberg] China Removes Foreign Ownership Limits on Banks, Fund Firms

[Bloomberg] EU Raises Prospect of No Deal in December as Brexit Talks Drag

[Reuters] ECB should have signaled intent to end asset buys, Nowotny says

[Bloomberg] ECB Warns of Complacency Risks in Surging Euro-Area Economy

[Bloomberg] Noble Group Tumbles as Trader’s Cash Dwindles to Decade-Low

[Reuters] Bitcoin slides by over $1000 in less than 48 hours

[Reuters] Trump brings tough trade message in vision for Asia

[WSJ] Senate Tax Plan Differs From House on Individual Rates, Timing of Corporate Rate Cut

[FT] Investors shun active US equity funds

[WSJ] Trump Declares New World-Trade Order


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