Un tsunami de dettes va s’abattre sur les marchés, il sera difficile d’échapper à la crise en 2020.

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Mon approche est beaucoup vaste, synthétique que celle des équipes de GEFIRA, en particulier sur les causes des difficultés de reproduction de notre système économique, financier et monétaire.

Et c’est pour cette raison que je suis encore plus pessimiste; on ne peut échapper aux contradictions internes et externes du système. Tout ce que l’on peut faire, c’est les reporter  dans le futur au prix d’une aggravation criminelle.

Le reflet, le mode d’apparition  de toutes les contradictions c’est la fuite en avant dans la dette. C’est la plaque, le voile, le truc, qui recouvre le trou , il le cache tout en le révélant.

GEFIRA part de la dette , moi je pars beaucoup plus en amont, mais les conclussions sont les mêmes.  Les faux remèdes, la fuite en  avant de 2008 et tout ce qui s’est passé depuis, y compris la réforme fiscale de Trump, aggravent la situation augmentent les déséquilibres et conduisent à une impasse.

Meme la démographie pour moi est une résultante et non pas une cause: la démographie est la résultante de la volonté des peuples  de refuser la baisse de leur niveau de vie, la dilution de leur niveau de vie qui résultent  de la reproduction vitale et de l’élargissement des familles.   On partage de façon malthusienne la rareté produite par  la contrainte croissante du profit. On ne reproduit plus au sens physique, matérialiste, la main d’oeuvre  parce qu’elle n’est plus rentable.

Nos concitoyens vivent dans l’illusion parce qu’ils ne voient qu’une partie de la réalité, celle qui est comme je le dis souvent, évidente. Mais les choses humaines ne sont pas évidentes, la réalité n’est pas faite uniquement de ce que l’on voit , elle est surtout faite de ce que l’on ne voit pas. Ce qui commande, c’est ce qui est caché, non-su, non-conscient.

Ce que l’on ne voit pas, ce sont les passifs, les dettes, la masse de promesses qui ont été accumulées, la masse des ayants droits qui prétendent à leur part. Les peuples n’en ont qu’une conscience vague,  par le biais du problème des retraites et des soins de santé, mais cette conscience est obscurcie, idéologique. En fait   la crise est vaste,  c’est une sorte de crise de principe, la crise est une crise de structure, une crise de passif, une crise de l’excès du passif sur le que l’on voit, l’actif.

Notre société ne peut tenir les promesses sur lesquelles elle repose et se légitime.

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A tsunami of US debt will hit the markets, and by 2020 we will have the next systemic global crisis

Gefira Financial Bullletin #23 is available now

  • The US trade deficit is growing at a staggering pace
  • No changes on the Moskva River. Forecast of Russian policy after the presidential election
  • A turn towards Asia and the Middle East

The 2020 crisis is the accumulation of the demographic problem which will entail a financial and economic disaster. The world’s most productive populations are ageing and will subsequently disappear.

Politicians, journalists and the financial press are ignoring the flashing warning signs. Economic mavericks like Max Keiser, financial critics like Steve Keen and mainstream economists like Paul Krugman are debating financial repression, monetary and fiscal intervention or allowing for more free markets and more real capitalism. None of them seems to touch on what is plain to see for us all: the youth in the most productive countries is disappearing at a breathtaking pace. States like the US, France and the UK are attempting to make up for it with the acceptance of unprecedented large numbers of unskilled and even undocumented migrants. The 2008 financial crisis and the 2011 euro crisis are portents of what has yet to come.
The American president is trying to stimulate the economy with a fiscal Keynesian plan. In the coming ten years US federal spending will grow by a stunning 60%, which is a result of increasing social security liabilities and further implementation of the Paul Wolfowitz doctrine of keeping the US as the sole world superpower. This growth of spending has to be financed by taxpayers. Since the US mainstream media are in cahoots with the Trump administration, they are talking about massive tax cuts, all this despite the fact that the US federal government expects tax income to increase by 5% annually, which appears to be wishful thinking.

 

Even if the US federal government income increases by a staggering 60% over the next ten years, the national spending plan will lead to an unprecedented shortage.

The US deficit will have reached 1 trillion by 2020 while during the same time the FED will be reducing its balance sheet by selling its treasuries. In the coming years, there will be a tsunami of treasuries flooding the market, as both the FED and the US treasury sell US government bonds, without there being a buyer of the last resort, that is the FED.

The US has become less dependent on foreign oil, and net-oil imports have contracted, and in spite of that the US trade deficit is at an all-time high. And that situation is only going to worsen.

US export products are cars, especially German brands manufactured in the USA, weapons and aircraft, but last year the Germans began to export German vehicles from China. To top it all the Chinese aircraft manufacturer COMAC will have rolled out an airplane that might successfully compete with Boeing 737, and by 2019 another one is planned that might push Boeing 787 out of the Chinese market. These developments will harm the US exports even further. With soybeans as their prime export product the US is becoming a Third World economy. True, since the election of Donald Trump the US economy has begun the grow, but so has its structural problems.

In Europe, the situation is not much better. President Macron’s plans to reform the European Union are already disapproved by the Germans. Macron is not even able to restructure France. The little economic growth in Europe and in particular France is caused by record low interest rates and massive monetary stimulus. There will be no European integration, and by 2019 the ECB will have stopped its money printing programme, and by 2020 the markets will have understood that Macron is not capable of solving any problems of France or Europe. By that time the Germans will have realized that they have a demographic problem so much so that the outflow of labor has already begun to accelerate.

Europe is too diverse and divided to form a federation, which also means that the euro is doomed to failure. The Italians are playing with an idea of introducing a parallel currency in a disguised form so as to bypass the mandatory use of the euro.

Interest is on the rise, the US thirty-year mortgage rate has hit a four-year high while the US is selling T-bills at highest interest rates since August 2008. British families would struggle if interest rates rose to 2% or more. The soaring mortgage debt has accumulated during years of rock-bottom borrowing costs.

The oil price is climbing steadily, however far below the price that consumers paid in 2014. If the oil price hits the 90 dollar mark by 2019, we expect consumers to feel the pain.

Western countries will face a double demographic problem.

On the one hand the influx of an incompatible migration population that is primarily a liability, and on the other an increasing population of retirees who expect a decent return from their mandatory pension savings.

Ignoring the real problems and pretending that our economies resemble the American of the Reagan years will be a grave error.

By 2020 the next financial crisis will be around the corner, the large Central Banks will resort to buying bonds and other securities suppressing interest rates further. While the interest rate is climbing a little, the idea of negative interest rates is still on the table.

The Gefira gives a full explanation of the evolving financial and political situation of the Western economy and business world. We are the only team that gives the reader a comprehensive explanation of the current state of the economy and what investors and economists can expect in the coming years. Read more on www.gefira.org

The Gefira financial bulletin is a monthly periodical that the Gefira team releases ten times a year. We give a clear projection of the future of energy and politics.

From Trump’s election to the steep incline in oil price and the value of bitcoin, it was all in the Gefira before it happened.

According to the Gefira team, the next systemic crisis will happen around 2020 as the oil price is back at 100 dollar and German mass retirement begin. There is a high risk of war on the Old Continent. However, it is not Russia but Turkey that is the most prominent threat. 

It is not the emerging markets, nor public or private debt that should be of interest to investors but instead the shrinking populations in the developed world.

Japan is the first country that experiences a declining people, and for that reason, it pursued extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies. The decrease in the European and US population will have dire economic consequence, and after 2025 China will join the club of dying nations.  

Apart from China and Russia, economic growth in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia is dependent on the developed countries which see a dramatic decline in their populations.

In the Gefira bulletin we provide investment suggestions and give a coherent vision of the time ahead from a macroeconomic perspective.

On our Website, we have articles from our research team whereas in the Gefira Financial Bulletin we give a comprehensive explanation of the coming world. We focus primarily on economic, investment and strategic subjects. We focus on 2020 as the financial breaking point.

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From the perspective of investors and financial planners we focus on such issues as:

  • Geopolitical risks
  • Demographics
  • Private and public debt
  • Assets bubbles
  • Cryptocurrencies
  • Energy security

The Gefira Financial Bulletin is a confidential briefing paper on the current economic events for investors and generally the business community. It is accompanied by our website, where you will find articles on social issues.

 

The Gefira research team is the only one that is acutely aware of the importance of the current unprecedented demographic changes not seen before in all of history.

The Gefira  research team elaborates its anticipation, drawing on:

1. an extensive knowledge of finance and banking;

2. a comprehensive understanding of geopolitics and history;

3. detailed data analyses of millions of records;

4. computer-aided simulations.

 

With best regards

T.Dankers, Editor-in-chief
editor@gefira.org

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5 réflexions sur “Un tsunami de dettes va s’abattre sur les marchés, il sera difficile d’échapper à la crise en 2020.

  1. Bonjour Mr Bertez,
    Vous nous soufflez le chaud et le froid en cette fin de semaine entre cet article et votre édito.
    Si je vous comprends bien, dans votre édito, c’est le « ils gèrent très bien » qui est en passe de l’emporter (ce que je veux bien croire) mais ici, c’est plutôt le scénario catastrophe inéluctable pour 2020 (c’est quasi demain) dont il est question … pas facile de s’y retrouver.

    J’essaie néanmoins: la remonté des taux d’intérêts ne va pas faire s’effondrer l’économie (comme le prétendent les annonciateurs de l’Apocalypse financière) mais le retour à la réalité, les tonnes de promesses en attentes de réalisation (les retraites quoi) vont le provoquer (d’où votre récent article sur le fait que dans 10 ans, la retraite ne soit plus ce qu’elle est aujourd’hui).
    Bref, il ne faut pas s’inquiéter des aspects techniques (remontée) mais c’est le fondement même de nos systèmes démocratiques qui va se révéler intenable compte tenu des ambitions de tous les acteurs: chacun veut sa part et la somme des dettes + promesses + appétits des acteurs est bien trop lourde pour être maitrisable.

    Si mon interprétation finale est la bonne, que dire alors de l’exemple Japonais: il en sont à 250% de dette, travaillent après 65 ans etc … ne nous dirigeons nous pas directement vers leur présent (mais nous ne sommes pas des japonnais il est vrai).

    J'aime

    1. Ma position n’a jamais changé depuis le début des années 80 c’est à dire depuis l’entrée de plein pied dans la dérégulation financière: ceci se terminera par une crise financière et sociale colossale.

      Mais et j’ai toujours ajouté ce « mais », les démiurges ont la possibilité de retarder les échéances en acceptant une aggravation de la crise future.
      on ne peut échapper à la Necessité, c’est à dire à la loi de la pesanteur qui, en économie est la loi de la Valeur, mais on peut tricher sur un paramètre central et ce paramètre est la monnaie.

      J'aime

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